MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2KC

CHW

44-78

61-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

20,829 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.2± 3.1low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.7± 3.0low
Tristan PetersCHW
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.717

.695

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.72

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.39

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 1 · KC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Vargas3B	.228	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.281	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.272	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. Sosa2B	.273	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. TauchmanRF	.274	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Meidroth2B	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TaylorRF	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.225	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.180	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	7	1	1	2	7

Player

.228

.281

.218

.233

.272

.273

.274

.249

.217

.225

.180

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	6.0	8	3	3	1	3	95
B. EisertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
S. WilsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	8.0	8	3	3	1	6	123

Player

A. CivaleSP

6.0

B. EisertRP

1.0

S. WilsonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YastrzemskiLF	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.290	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.301	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. PerezC	.246	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.324	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. India2B	.237	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Loftin2B	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.266	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	8	3	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. CameronSP	5.1	6	1	1	2	2	79
J. SchreiberRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. ZerpaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
C. EstevezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	20
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	7	121

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.