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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TOR
TOR

TOR

62-42

6
2
DET

DET

60-45

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
37,820 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · DET 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0002400006
DET0100010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Joey Loperfido

Joey Loperfido

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR62-42
6
2
DET60-45
TOR62-42·DET60-45
TOR

TOR

62-42

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-55120001
SPRINT27.148
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-55130001
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-55221001
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55112000
SPRINT25.716
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44111011
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-55011001
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
2-33020010
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-55010001
W. WagnerW. Wagner★3B
0-33000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000001
Team13-41416135028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
6.0522261
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0000010
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000010
Team9.0522291
DET

DET

60-45

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000012
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000011
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33011000
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.381
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000002
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
Team5-3131252129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
4.0965030
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0200000
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.0100010
B. HurterB. HurterRP
2.0100030
G. HartliebG. HartliebRP
1.0000210
Team9.01365280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    85 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      29%·91.9 mph·7% whiff
    • SV
      29%·82.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      21%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • CU
      46%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Little
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      54%·86.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      38%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.9 mph·— whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    76 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.1 mph·55% whiff
    • KC
      22%·79.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      55%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Hartlieb
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Holton
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

5

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

TOR wins series 3-1

Jul 24TORTOR11@DETDET4
Jul 25TORTOR6@DETDET2today
Jul 26TORTOR6@DETDET1
Jul 27TORTOR4@DETDET10

Season series

TOR leads series 3-2

May 16DETDET5@TORTOR4
May 17DETDET1@TORTOR2
May 18DETDET3@TORTOR2
Jul 24TORTOR11@DETDET4
Jul 25TORTOR6@DETDET2today
Jul 26TORTOR6@DETDET1
Jul 27TORTOR4@DETDET10

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 4th Inning

TORTOR
J. Loperfido

J. Loperfido

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 9 H

How it ended

TOR beat DET 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 68% WP

Dingler · doubled to right, Pérez scored.

TORTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 58% WP

Barger · scored on error, Loperfido safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Báez.

TORTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 86% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Lukes scored, Springer to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0002400006
DET0100010002

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Barger 2

4
0

Inn 5

Bichette 2

0
1

Inn 6

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
DET

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·DET 2

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  3. B9

    McKinstry grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  7. B9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  8. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  9. B9

    Pérez flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  16. B9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Wenceel Perez

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  17. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  18. B9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

    −0.9pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  24. B9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  25. B9

    Rodríguez relieved Little

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·DET 2

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·DET 2

  28. T9

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  29. T9

    Clement fouled out to third.

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

2

13

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

17

TB

9

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

8

K

9

20

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    45.8%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    146
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 94
    220
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 93
    24
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    22
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    86
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs