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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
MIL

MIL

60-40

6
0
SEA

SEA

53-47

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
30,085 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · SEA 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000040206
SEA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    810
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    141
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 92
    146
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 92
    220
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 92
    80
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 92
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL60-40
6
0
SEA53-47
MIL60-40·SEA53-47
MIL

MIL

60-40

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33111000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-44221001
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44122000
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33011010
SPRINT27.867
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-44000000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000013
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
1-44010000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44110002
Team10-33336105026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
6.0200050
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0300110
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0000020
Team9.0500180
SEA

SEA

53-47

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.310
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-11010000
SPRINT28.175
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000000
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT28.381
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-22000010
D. SolanoD. Solano1B
0-11000000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-22000002
Team5-3131050018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0544130
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.0100010
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0421100
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0000020
Team9.01065260

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0today
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0today
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 6th Inning

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat SEA 6-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 69% WP

Williamson · singled to right.

MILTop 6th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 58% WP

Turang · doubled to center, Ortiz to third.

MILTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 84% WP

Chourio · doubled to center, Yelich scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000040206
SEA0000000000

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · SEA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
0

Inn 6

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Yelich 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
SEA

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  3. B9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  8. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Dylan Moore

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  10. B9

    Solano hit by pitch.

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  14. B9

    Polanco to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  15. B9

    Polanco to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  18. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Donovan Solano

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  19. B9

    ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  20. B9

    Polanco grounded into fielder's choice to second, Raleigh out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  27. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Jorge Polanco

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  28. B9

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  29. B9

    Arozarena struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 6·SEA 0

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

0

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

13

TB

5

0

HR

0

2

BB

1

6

K

8

7

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.