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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TOR
TOR

TOR

63-42

6
1
DET

DET

60-46

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
40,528 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · DET 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000000246
DET0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 25, 25sim 97
    146
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    223
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    86
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 91
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 91
    85
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Jake Rogers

Jake Rogers

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR63-42
6
1
DET60-46
TOR63-42·DET60-46
TOR

TOR

63-42

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000001
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-55231101
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44121110
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44022010
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-11010000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44110001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-22010001
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-44000001
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
1-22110001
SPRINT28.688
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0-22000011
N. LukesN. LukesRF
1-22112100
SPRINT27.148
Team12-37376126339
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.01001100
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000000
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.1111020
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000010
Team9.02111130
DET

DET

60-46

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.18
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44001003
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT26.123
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-22000011
SPRINT28.381
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-33000001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000003
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
2-33120001
Team2-29291210113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.0500370
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0000000
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0322010
C. LeeC. LeeRP
1.0444013
Team9.01266393

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.3 mph·4% whiff
    • FS
      40%·82.9 mph·74% whiff
    • SL
      13%·82.3 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Nance
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      32%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      77%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      45%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.7 mph·— whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    96 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      33%·88.2 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Lee
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      48%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      78%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

2

6

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

TOR wins series 3-1

Jul 24TORTOR11@DETDET4
Jul 25TORTOR6@DETDET2
Jul 26TORTOR6@DETDET1today
Jul 27TORTOR4@DETDET10

Season series

TOR leads series 4-2

May 16DETDET5@TORTOR4
May 17DETDET1@TORTOR2
May 18DETDET3@TORTOR2
Jul 24TORTOR11@DETDET4
Jul 25TORTOR6@DETDET2
Jul 26TORTOR6@DETDET1today
Jul 27TORTOR4@DETDET10

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 8th Inning

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

DETDET
J. Rogers

J. Rogers

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TOR beat DET 6-1. Bichette's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 61% WP

Heineman · walked.

TORTop 8th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 58% WP

Loperfido · singled to center.

TORTop 8th Inning · 2-0
+21pp→ 87% WP

Bichette · singled to right, Loperfido scored and Springer scored, Bichette safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Pérez.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000000246
DET0000000011

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · DET won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Bichette 2

4
1

Inn 9

Lukes 2

Greene 1

TOR
DET

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·DET 1

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  3. B9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  12. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  13. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  14. B9

    Greene grounded out to second, Rogers scored.

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  18. B9

    Rogers to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  19. B9

    Rogers to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  21. B9

    Rogers to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  22. B9

    Rogers to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  24. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 1

  25. B9

    Fluharty relieved Nance

    ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  26. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  27. B9

    Torres flied out to center.

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

    −0.5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 6·DET 0

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

1

12

Hits

2

1

Errors

1

23

TB

2

3

HR

0

3

BB

1

9

K

13

15

LOB

3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    44.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.4%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.