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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CIN
PHI

PHI

69-50

1
6
CIN

CIN

63-58

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
29,654 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PHI 1 · CIN 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000011
CIN002103006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    24
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    220
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 96
    224
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    145
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Philadelphia Phillies, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI69-50
1
6
CIN63-58
PHI69-50·CIN63-58
PHI

PHI

69-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000002
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000002
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-33010001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000001
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
1-33010000
SPRINT26.225
Team5-31311511010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
5.11066231
J. RossJ. RossRP
0.2000000
M. LazarM. LazarRP
2.0000010
Team8.01066241
CIN

CIN

63-58

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT26.838
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-33013000
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010000
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT26.530
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-33100010
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44110003
SPRINT28.586
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
2-44222000
SPRINT23.40
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
2-22020010
K. HayesK. Hayes3B
0-11000000
Team10-32326106124
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
6.0300060
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000020
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0100000
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0111021
Team9.05110101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    92 pitches·16% CSW
    • CU
      24%·72.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      24%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·78.9 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      2%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      45%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      18%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Ross
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      38%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    71 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      54%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      46%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·77.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6today
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8

Season series

PHI leads series 3-2

Jul 4CINCIN9@PHIPHI6
Jul 5CINCIN1@PHIPHI5
Jul 6CINCIN1@PHIPHI3
Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6today
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
S. Espinal

S. Espinal

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CIN beat PHI 6-1. Steer's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

CIN vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 75% WP

Steer · doubled to left, Friedl scored and Trevino scored.

CINBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 86% WP

Andujar · homered to left (366 feet).

CINBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 92% WP

Hays · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000011
CIN00210300—6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Steer 2

0
1

Inn 4

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Trevino 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Harper 1

PHI
CIN

Play-by-play · 481 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  2. T9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  8. T9

    Sam Moll pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  9. T9

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  10. T9

    Harper homered to right center (410 feet).

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  15. T9

    Sam Moll pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    PHI 1·CIN 6

  16. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  17. T9

    Schwarber struck out looking.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  24. T9

    Sam Moll pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  25. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  26. T9

    Turner grounded out to third.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

1

Runs

6

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

9

TB

15

1

HR

1

0

BB

2

10

K

4

6

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    46.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.