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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
BOS

BOS

65-53

4
5
SD

SD

65-52

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,389 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

BOS 4 · SD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
BOS10200000104
SD01102000015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    22
    25(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    22
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    141
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 93
    146
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Boston Red Sox, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
BOS65-53
4
5
SD65-52
BOS65-53·SD65-52
BOS

BOS

65-53

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-55011002
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
3-44130010
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-44121011
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-55100002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT26.123
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000022
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44110012
SPRINT28.790
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000012
D. HamiltonD. HamiltonSS
0-11000001
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez1B
0-11000000
Team9-38384930615
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
4.2544611
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.2100010
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.2000120
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000000
Team9.0754841
SD

SD

65-52

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55120002
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55120000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000010
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44100011
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44222110
SPRINT27.148
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-11001040
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44012011
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000000
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000000
Team7-3333575184
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
2.0422210
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
2.0111210
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
2.0000050
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.2100020
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.1100030
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0211120
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000110
Team10.09446150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • J. Adam
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      41%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      9%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      69%·97.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Aug 9BOSBOS10@SDSD2
Aug 10BOSBOS4@SDSD5today
Aug 10BOSBOS2@SDSD6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 9BOSBOS10@SDSD2
Aug 10BOSBOS4@SDSD5today
Aug 10BOSBOS2@SDSD6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 9th Inning

BOSBOS
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 6 BB

SDSD
X. Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Estrada

J. Estrada

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER

How it ended

SD beat BOS 5-4. Anthony's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

SD vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 88% WP

Toro · struck out swinging.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+34pp→ 55% WP

Anthony · hit a ground rule double, Rafaela scored.

SDBottom 10th Inning · 4-5
+23pp→ 100% WP

Laureano · singled to left, Bogaerts scored, O'Hearn to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
BOS10200000104
SD01102000015

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · SD won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Duran 1

0
1

Inn 2

Bogaerts 1

2
1

Inn 3

Yoshida 2

Bogaerts 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Anthony 1

0
1

Inn 10

Laureano 1

BOS
SD

Play-by-play · 685 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 5

  2. B10

    Laureano singled to left, Bogaerts scored, O'Hearn to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 5

    +23pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 5

  4. B10

    Garrett Whitlock pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 5

  5. B10

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  6. B10

    O'Hearn intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

    +9pp

  7. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  8. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  11. B10

    Garrett Whitlock pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  12. B10

    Whitlock relieved Chapman

    ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  13. B10

    González at first base.

    BOS 4·SD 4

  14. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    BOS 4·SD 4

  15. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    BOS 4·SD 4

  16. T10

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  17. T10

    Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Abreu out at second.

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  18. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  19. T10

    Jason Adam pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  20. T10

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  21. T10

    Abreu intentionally walked.

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

    −1pp

  22. T10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  23. T10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  24. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  25. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  26. T10

    Jason Adam pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  27. T10

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  28. T10

    González flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

    +9pp

  29. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

  30. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·SD 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

5

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

11

0

HR

1

6

BB

8

15

K

4

24

LOB

19

Player projections

SD vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483