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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8MIL
MIL

MIL

61-41

10
2
SEA

SEA

54-48

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
41,449 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 10 · SEA 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL02031130010
SEA0200000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    86
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 92
    24
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 92
    229
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 91
    226
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 91
    1411
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.267OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Ben Williamson

Ben Williamson

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL61-41
10
2
SEA54-48
MIL61-41·SEA54-48
MIL

MIL

61-41

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-55233011
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
3-55032002
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-55010002
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55121002
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-55220000
SPRINT27.867
T. BlackT. Black★DH
2-55121001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-55012004
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
1-33210000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44221010
SPRINT28.790
E. HaaseE. HaaseC
0-11000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
0-11000000
Team17-44441017100212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Q. PriesterQ. Priester★SP
7.0622260
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0100030
Team9.0722290
SEA

SEA

54-48

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT25.310
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-33000013
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-44010000
SPRINT24.53
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44111002
SPRINT25.920
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-22021010
SPRINT28.381
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
M. MastrobuoniM. Mastrobuoni3B
0-11000000
Team7-3232272029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
5.01063070
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
2.0744020
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0000020
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0000210
Team9.0171072120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • Q. Priester
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      49%·93.7 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.6 mph·56% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.7 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      1%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      68%·94.5 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      15%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.3 mph·50% whiff

SEA

  • L. Castillo
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.2 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    43 pitches·37% CSW
    • FC
      33%·90.4 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·81.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      46%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      19%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

7

10

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2today

Season series

MIL wins series 2-1

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 4th Inning

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 2 R · 1.267 OPS

Q. Priester

Q. Priester

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
B. Williamson

B. Williamson

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 10 H

How it ended

MIL beat SEA 10-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 58% WP

Black · doubled to right, Collins to third.

SEABottom 2nd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 47% WP

Canzone · doubled to right, Polanco scored.

MILTop 4th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 59% WP

Ortiz · singled to right, Collins scored, Ortiz to second, Seigler to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL02031130010
SEA0200000002

Period scoring

MIL won 4 · SEA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

2
2

Inn 2

Perkins 2

Canzone 1

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Ortiz 1

1
0

Inn 5

Black 1

1
0

Inn 6

Chourio 1

3
0

Inn 7

Turang 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
SEA

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  3. B9

    Canzone struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  12. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  13. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  14. B9

    Garver singled to center.

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  20. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Mitch Garver

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  21. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  22. B9

    Raley struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  27. B9

    Tobias Myers pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  28. B9

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  29. B9

    Polanco flied out to left.

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 10·SEA 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

10

Runs

2

17

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

20

TB

9

0

HR

0

2

BB

2

12

K

9

19

LOB

12

Player projections

SEA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Tyler BlackMIL · DH
    SPRINT2872