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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

90-61

6
5
LAD

LAD

84-66

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
43,602 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · LAD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
PHI10000031016
LAD00102010105

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 17, 25sim 94
    229
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    222
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 92
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 92
    228
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 92
    83
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 92
    24
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 15·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
PHI90-61
6
5
LAD84-66
PHI90-61·LAD84-66
PHI

PHI

90-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44100013
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111111
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33111122
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44001001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000000
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-33110010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-44000003
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33111010
SPRINT28.688
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-44112101
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-22000000
Team5-34346563611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
6.0733251
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0111031
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000020
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0111111
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0000200
Team10.09555113
LAD

LAD

84-66

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33010022
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-33113100
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010012
SPRINT24.74
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-44010011
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44010010
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-55111103
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
3-44231100
SPRINT28.175
C. RobinsonC. Robinson★C
0-11100000
B. RortvedtB. RortvedtC
0-11000000
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-22000001
Team9-35355953511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. BandaA. Banda★RP
0.1111111
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
5.2111370
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0222011
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0111111
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0010100
Team10.05656113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • J. Duran
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·101.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      50%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      57%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      14%·83.5 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • B. Treinen
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      53%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      62%·89.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Banda
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5today
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5

Season series

PHI leads series 3-1

Apr 4LADLAD2@PHIPHI3
Apr 5LADLAD3@PHIPHI1
Apr 6LADLAD7@PHIPHI8
Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5today
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 9th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Top reliever

5.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat LAD 6-5. Pages's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 7th Inning · 4-3
+34pp→ 61% WP

Wilson · homered to center (417 feet), Stott scored.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+47pp→ 60% WP

Pages · homered to left (424 feet).

PHIBottom 10th Inning · 6-5
+27pp→ 100% WP

Muncy · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
PHI10000031016
LAD00102010105

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

5

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

15

TB

21

3

HR

3

6

BB

5

11

K

11

13

LOB

18

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

PHI won 4 · LAD won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Betts 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Muncy 1

0
0

Inn 6

3
1

Inn 7

Wilson 2

Betts 1

1
0

Inn 8

Harper 1

0
1

Inn 9

Pages 1

1
0

Inn 10

Realmuto 1

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 644 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  3. B10

    Muncy grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

    −27pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  9. B10

    David Robertson pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  10. B10

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  11. B10

    Rojas popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

    −27pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  13. B10

    David Robertson pitches to Miguel Rojas

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  14. B10

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  15. B10

    Call walked, Freeman to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

    +6pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  17. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  19. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  20. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  22. B10

    David Robertson pitches to Alex Call

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  23. B10

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  24. B10

    Freeman intentionally walked.

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

    +1pp

  25. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  26. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  27. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  28. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  29. B10

    David Robertson pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

  30. B10

    · ·

    PHI 6·LAD 5

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.8%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175