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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PHI
PHI

PHI

91-61

9
6
LAD

LAD

84-67

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
44,063 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 9 · LAD 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000060039
LAD0301000206

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 9–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Rafael Marchan

Rafael Marchan

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Enrique Hernandez

Enrique Hernandez

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI91-61
9
6
LAD84-67
PHI91-61·LAD84-67
PHI

PHI

91-61

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-33110011
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33112011
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44113100
SPRINT28.175
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000002
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-44111100
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33110011
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33100010
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
2-44223100
SPRINT26.225
Team8-3333989346
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
7.0744062
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
0.1222001
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.2100100
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000000
Team9.01066163
LAD

LAD

84-67

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55121102
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44110000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33000010
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
2-44120000
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33112101
SPRINT27.765
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.175
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-22113100
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
0-22000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
0-11000000
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000001
D. RushingD. RushingC
0-11000000
Team10-34346106316
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
5.0000150
SPRINT2744
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
0.1555001
E. HenriquezE. Henriquez★RP
0.2111101
J. DreyerJ. Dreyer★RP
1.0000010
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000100
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0233101
Team9.0899463

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

9

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6today
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5

Season series

PHI leads series 4-1

Apr 4LADLAD2@PHIPHI3
Apr 5LADLAD3@PHIPHI1
Apr 6LADLAD7@PHIPHI8
Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6today
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 53pp · Top 9th Inning

PHIPHI
R. Marchan

R. Marchan

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 7 H

LADLAD
E. Hernández

E. Hernández

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat LAD 9-6. March's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (53pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 6th Inning · 5-4
+29pp→ 61% WP

Marsh · homered to right center (394 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 6-5
+22pp→ 38% WP

Ohtani · homered to right (430 feet).

PHITop 9th Inning · 9-6
+53pp→ 96% WP

March · án homered to right (362 feet), Wilson scored and Stott scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000060039
LAD0301000206

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · LAD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

6
0

Inn 6

Marsh 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Ohtani 1

3
0

Inn 9

March 3

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  3. B9

    Ohtani grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  9. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  10. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  11. B9

    Rushing grounded out to second.

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  17. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Dalton Rushing

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  18. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  19. B9

    Muncy grounded out to second.

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

    −3pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  22. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  23. B9

    Duran relieved Banks

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  24. B9

    Muncy hit for E. Hernández

    · ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  27. T9

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  28. T9

    Bader lined out to left.

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 9·LAD 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

9

Runs

6

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

19

TB

20

3

HR

3

4

BB

1

6

K

6

3

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    47.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    226
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 92
    810
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 90
    88
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 90
    222
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 90
    1411
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 89
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs