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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
ATH

ATH

42-62

1
2
TEX

TEX

53-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
27,719 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATH 1 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000010001
TEX001000102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 98
    202
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 94
    152
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 93
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    43
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 92
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 92
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Athletics, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
ATH42-62
1
2
TEX53-50
ATH42-62·TEX53-50
ATH

ATH

42-62

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000000
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44120000
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
2-44020001
SPRINT28.586
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-22010001
SPRINT26.530
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
0-22000002
G. UrshelaG. Urshela★3B
0-44000002
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
1-33010001
SPRINT24.96
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-22000000
T. SoderstromT. SoderstromLF
0-22000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-22000001
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team7-34341710010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SearsJ. Sears★SP
5.0311071
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
3.0111240
Team8.04222111
TEX

TEX

53-50

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-22000001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000000
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000002
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT25.920
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-22100011
SPRINT2872
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-33011000
SPRINT25.18
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
0-22000001
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-22000001
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-22000001
J. SmithJ. Smith2B
0-11000001
Team4-27272421211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
5.2511070
J. GrayJ. GrayRP
2.0100000
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.1000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100020
Team9.07110100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 4-3

Apr 29ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Apr 30ATHATH2@TEXTEX15
May 1ATHATH7@TEXTEX1
May 1ATHATH3@TEXTEX0
Jul 22ATHATH2@TEXTEX7
Jul 23ATHATH2@TEXTEX6
Jul 24ATHATH1@TEXTEX2today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Apr 23TEXTEX8@ATHATH5
Apr 24TEXTEX2@ATHATH5
Apr 25TEXTEX3@ATHATH4
Apr 29ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Apr 30ATHATH2@TEXTEX15
May 1ATHATH7@TEXTEX1
May 1ATHATH3@TEXTEX0
Jul 22ATHATH2@TEXTEX7
Jul 23ATHATH2@TEXTEX6
Jul 24ATHATH1@TEXTEX2today
Aug 30TEXTEX5@ATHATH2
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH3
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 7th Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Sears

J. Sears

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TEX beat ATH 2-1. Heim's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

TEX vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 36% WP

Kurtz · doubled to right, Rooker scored.

TEXBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 84% WP

Heim · doubled to shortstop, Langford scored.

ATHTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 22% WP

Langeliers · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000010001
TEX00100010—2

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Seager 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

0
1

Inn 7

Heim 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATH
TEX

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  2. T9

    Urshela struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

    +5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  8. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Gio Urshela

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  9. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  10. T9

    Butler struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

    +8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  16. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  17. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  18. T9

    Soderstrom flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

    +9pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  20. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  21. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  22. T9

    Langeliers singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

    −13pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  24. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  25. T9

    R. Garcia relieved Milner

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  26. T9

    Tellez at first base.

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  29. B8

    ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

  30. B8

    Seager grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Tellez out at second.

    · ·

    ATH 1·TEX 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

2

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

9

TB

9

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

10

K

11

11

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.3%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.