HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1TB
CHW

CHW

36-66

3
4
TB

TB

53-49

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

TB

TB

.737

OPS

◀

.717

.720

.325

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.95

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CHW 3 · TB 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0002001003
TB040000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Chicago White Sox, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. CaballeroTB+13.3pp
  2. 2M. VargasCHW−13.1pp
  3. 3P. FairbanksTB+13.0pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Jose Caballero

Jose Caballero

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanRF
.2864120002
C. Meidroth2B
.2514111000
A. BenintendiDH
.2384020001
M. Vargas3B
.2213000011
E. QueroC
.2643001001
C. MontgomerySS
.2614111100
L. Sosa2B
.2643000001
B. BaldwinLF
.2223000002
M. TaylorRF
.2203000002
Team313631110

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. MartinSP
5.03434376
T. AlexanderRP
2.02000432
M. VasilRP
1.00001211
Team8.054359119

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.3013010010
Y. DiazDH
.2904000002
J. Aranda1B
.3163010011
J. Caminero3B
.2603110011
J. LoweLF
.2353000011
J. MangumLF
.2973100001
M. ThaissC
.2331100011
J. CaballeroSS
.2243122000
T. WallsSS
.2133001001
- D. JansenC
.2121000001
Team27453059

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. RasmussenSP
4.03221575
E. UcetaRP
2.01000431
B. BakerRP
1.01110112
G. CleavingerRP
1.0100005
P. FairbanksRP
1.00000012
Team9.0633110135

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    76 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      29%·91.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      3%·91.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      41%·91.6 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      55%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.4 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    75 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      43%·89.6 mph·24% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    31 pitches·45% CSW
    • CH
      45%·88.4 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      39%·93.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      33%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      80%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4today
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4today
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9
Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

TBTB
J. Caballero

J. Caballero

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat CHW 4-3.

Win probability

TB vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 93% WP

Caballero · singled to center, Mangum scored on error and Thaiss scored on error, Caballero to second, Caballero safe at third on throwing error by center fielder M. Taylor.

CHWTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+10pp→ 29% WP

Tauchman · singled to left.

TBBottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 92% WP

Simpson · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0002001003
TB04000000—4

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · TB won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Caballero 3

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Meidroth 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
TB

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  2. T9

    Montgomery grounded out to first.

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  6. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  7. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  8. T9

    Quero grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

    +4pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  10. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  11. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  12. T9

    Vargas popped out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

    +7pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  21. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  22. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Cleavinger

    ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 3·TB 4

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 3·TB 4

  25. B8

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  26. B8

    J. Lowe grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

    −2pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  29. B8

    Mike Vasil pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

  30. B8

    · ·

    CHW 3·TB 4

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

TB

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

10

TB

5

1

HR

0

1

BB

5

10

K

9

8

LOB

11

Player projections

TB vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    2.0± 3.2low
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Colson MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    0.8± 1.8low
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.4± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.1%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.