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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
ATL

ATL

46-63

2
3
CIN

CIN

58-53

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
29,269 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

ATL 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000000022
CIN000001203

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Atlanta Braves, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL46-63
2
3
CIN58-53
ATL46-63·CIN58-53
ATL

ATL

46-63

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000011
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000004
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33100012
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-33011010
SPRINT27.354
E. WhiteE. White★CF
1-44010003
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-11000000
S. MurphyS. MurphyC
0-11000001
Team7-32322720314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
6.2422250
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.1111031
Team8.0533281
CIN

CIN

58-53

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
2-33020001
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000011
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33000001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT28.483
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-33000001
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000000
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
2-33222101
SPRINT2872
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
A. HaysA. HaysLF
0-11000001
SPRINT27.354
Team5-2828353128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
6.04001100
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000010
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100120
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0222110
Team9.07223140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      45%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      2%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      46%·87.1 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      39%·93.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.3 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    97 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      38%·91.2 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      32%·82.6 mph·45% whiff
    • FF
      12%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      83%·97.3 mph·18% whiff
    • SV
      17%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·95.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      15%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      36%·78.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Jul 31ATLATL12@CINCIN11
Aug 1ATLATL2@CINCIN3today
Aug 2ATLATL4@CINCIN2

Season series

ATL leads series 4-2

May 5CINCIN0@ATLATL4
May 6CINCIN1@ATLATL2
May 7CINCIN4@ATLATL3
May 8CINCIN4@ATLATL5
Jul 31ATLATL12@CINCIN11
Aug 1ATLATL2@CINCIN3today
Aug 2ATLATL4@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat ATL 3-2.

Win probability

CIN vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 78% WP

McLain · singled to center, Benson scored, McLain to second.

CINBottom 7th Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 94% WP

Benson · homered to left (356 feet), Steer scored.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 25% WP

Albies · singled to center, Ozuna scored, Harris II to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000000022
CIN00000120—3

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · CIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

McLain 1

0
2

Inn 7

Benson 2

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Albies 1

ATL
CIN

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  2. T9

    Profar grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  4. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jurickson Profar

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  5. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  6. T9

    Williams hit sacrifice fly to left, Harris II scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

    +9pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  8. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Luke Williams

    · ·

    ATL 2·CIN 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  10. T9

    White struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

    +6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  14. T9

    Albies stole second.

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  15. T9

    Albies stole second.

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  20. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Eli White

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  21. T9

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  22. T9

    Albies singled to center, Ozuna scored, Harris II to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

    −12pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

  26. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    ATL 1·CIN 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

  28. T9

    Harris II singled to right, Ozuna to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

    −7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 0·CIN 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

8

TB

8

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

14

K

8

18

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    61.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    154
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    43
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    42
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    41
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 94
    111
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs