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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
MIL

MIL

60-41

0
1
SEA

SEA

54-47

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
32,189 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

MIL 0 · SEA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
SEA000001001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    86
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 90
    220
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 90
    83
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 88
    146
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 88
    810
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 87
    21
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Milwaukee Brewers, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL60-41
0
1
SEA54-47
MIL60-41·SEA54-47
MIL

MIL

60-41

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000004
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33000012
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44010003
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-33020010
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-44000001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-44000001
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
0-33000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000001
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000001
Team3-30300300313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
3.2300170
D. HallD. HallRP
1.2000010
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.2111011
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000100
Team8.04112101
SEA

SEA

54-47

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33010002
SPRINT28.688
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33111101
SPRINT25.716
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.941
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-22000011
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-22000001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-33000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-22010010
SPRINT27.662
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
D. SolanoD. Solano1B
0-11000000
Team4-26261411210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.12000100
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2100000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2000100
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.1000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000220
Team9.03003130

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1today
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 22MILMIL6@SEASEA0
Jul 23MILMIL0@SEASEA1today
Jul 23MILMIL10@SEASEA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

SEA beat MIL 1-0. Raleigh's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

SEA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+19pp→ 73% WP

Raleigh · homered to right (391 feet).

MILTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 29% WP

Contreras · walked.

SEATop 9th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 88% WP

Collins · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
SEA00000100—1

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · SEA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Raleigh 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
SEA

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  2. T9

    Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Chourio out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  8. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  9. T9

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  10. T9

    Collins struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

    +14pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  17. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  18. T9

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  19. T9

    Chourio walked.

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

    −4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  26. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  27. T9

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  28. T9

    Yelich struck out swinging, Perkins to second on wild pitch by Muñoz.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

    +7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·SEA 1

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

0

Runs

1

3

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

3

TB

8

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

13

K

10

13

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    45.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.