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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5LAD
PHI

PHI

91-62

0
5
LAD

LAD

85-67

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,859 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

PHI 0 · LAD 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
LAD020100025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Philadelphia Phillies, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
PHI91-62
0
5
LAD85-67
PHI91-62·LAD85-67
PHI

PHI

91-62

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000000
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33010012
SPRINT27.148
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33000012
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-33000002
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-33000002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
Team3-30300300313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
7.0644162
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0111110
Team8.0755272
LAD

LAD

85-67

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44111101
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33100010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44121100
SPRINT24.74
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-33001000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-22110010
SPRINT28.175
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-33011002
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
1-33011001
Team7-3030575227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
7.02002120
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000000
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100110
Team9.03003130

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

7

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5today

Season series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 4LADLAD2@PHIPHI3
Apr 5LADLAD3@PHIPHI1
Apr 6LADLAD7@PHIPHI8
Sep 16PHIPHI6@LADLAD5
Sep 17PHIPHI9@LADLAD6
Sep 18PHIPHI0@LADLAD5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

PHIPHI
N. Castellanos

N. Castellanos

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 12 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat PHI 5-0.

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 78% WP

Freeman · homered to center (419 feet).

LADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 85% WP

Rortvedt · singled to center, Rojas scored, Pages to third.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 90% WP

E. Hern · ández singled to center, Pages scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
LAD02010002—5

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · LAD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Ohtani 1

0

Inn 9

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Kepler popped out to third.

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Max Kepler

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  7. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  8. T9

    Castellanos singled to center, Harper to third.

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  12. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Realmuto lined out to left.

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  22. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  23. T9

    Harper walked.

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  28. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  29. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

  30. T9

    Schwarber struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·LAD 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

0

Runs

5

3

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

3

TB

13

0

HR

2

3

BB

2

13

K

7

7

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 10 players in cohort
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    46.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    83
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    80
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    83
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 93
    80
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 10, 25sim 93
    80
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    86
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs