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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
BOS

BOS

66-56

1
4
HOU

HOU

68-53

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
31,048 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

BOS 1 · HOU 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0100000001
HOU200002004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    141
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    22
    25(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 94
    224
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Boston Red Sox, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS66-56
1
4
HOU68-53
BOS66-56·HOU68-53
BOS

BOS

66-56

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000003
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33000012
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44020000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-33020010
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.790
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33010001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000001
Team8-3333181039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
6.0444432
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0000000
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0000000
Team8.0444432
HOU

HOU

68-53

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT28.483
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000011
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-22100021
SPRINT24.22
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-33123100
SPRINT25.513
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.735
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000000
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
0-22000000
M. DubonM. DubonSS
0-11000000
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
0-11000000
Team4-2828444243
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
6.2611340
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.1000030
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0200020
Team9.0811390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • W. Buehler
    96 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      24%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.2 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      13%·76.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      9%·79.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • CU
      44%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • H. Brown
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.5 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      24%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      13%·91.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      52%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      48%·98.6 mph·38% whiff
  • B. Sousa
    17 pitches·59% CSW
    • SL
      76%·85.0 mph·78% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4today

Season series

BOS wins series 4-2

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6
Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

HOUHOU
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat BOS 4-1.

Win probability

HOU vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 78% WP

Peña homered to left (358 feet).

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 82% WP

Gonz · ález grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Yoshida out at second, Story to third.

HOUBottom 6th Inning · 1-4
+17pp→ 91% WP

Diaz · homered to left center (415 feet), Caratini scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0100000001
HOU20000200—4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · HOU won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Diaz 1

1
0

Inn 2

Rafaela 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Diaz 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
HOU

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  2. T9

    Refsnyder struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  9. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Rob Refsnyder

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  10. T9

    Refsnyder hit for Wong

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  11. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  12. T9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

    +4pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  19. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  20. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  21. T9

    Abreu popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

    +6pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  24. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  25. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  26. T9

    González singled to left, Yoshida to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

    −7pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 1·HOU 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

1

Runs

4

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

9

TB

10

0

HR

2

3

BB

4

9

K

3

17

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.