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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAD
TOR

TOR

68-49

1
5
LAD

LAD

67-49

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,825 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

TOR 1 · LAD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0100000001
LAD000020305

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 98
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    22
    25(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR68-49
1
5
LAD67-49
TOR68-49·LAD67-49
TOR

TOR

68-49

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000000
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33010012
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44021001
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT24.74
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
3-44030000
SPRINT26.838
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22000001
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000001
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000000
Team10-34341101017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
6.0622351
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000110
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0000010
Team8.0755671
LAD

LAD

67-49

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
3-55230001
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-44223100
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22000021
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-33001010
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-22000021
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT28.381
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-44000002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33100010
Team7-3030575167
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. KershawC. Kershaw★SP
6.0711140
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2100010
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.1100020
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100000
Team9.01011170

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5today
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5today
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
M. Betts

M. Betts

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 5-1. Betts's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 51% WP

Conforto · flied out to left.

LADBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+27pp→ 73% WP

Betts · homered to left (389 feet), Ohtani scored.

LADTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 77% WP

Bichette · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Guerrero Jr. out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0100000001
LAD00002030—5

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Barger 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Betts 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Betts 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Varsho flied out to center.

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  4. T9

    France to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  5. T9

    France to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  7. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  8. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  9. T9

    France singled to right.

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Ty France

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  15. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Barger grounded out to second.

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  23. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Addison Barger

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  24. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  25. T9

    Kirk grounded out to second.

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

    +0.6pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  28. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  29. T9

    Treinen relieved Casparius

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 5

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·LAD 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

5

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

11

0

HR

1

1

BB

6

7

K

7

15

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    49.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.