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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4KC
KC

KC

50-53

8
4
CHC

CHC

60-42

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,624 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 8 · CHC 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC2020220008
CHC0110001104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 96
    266
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    79
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    712
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 93
    213
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 93
    77
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC50-53
8
4
CHC60-42
KC50-53·CHC60-42
KC

KC

50-53

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT26.225
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.765
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
3-44334210
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44122110
SPRINT241
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-55000001
JJ. Rave★RF
0-44000001
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33100001
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
1-33112100
Team8-3636888436
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.0422260
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0211001
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0111111
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000000
Team9.0744372
CHC

CHC

60-42

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33110000
SPRINT25.716
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44000002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT29.294
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22100021
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33010012
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010000
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-33011000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT28.992
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-11000000
Team7-3232474237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.0665033
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0122021
R. PresslyR. PresslyRP
1.0000100
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
2.0100210
Team9.0887364

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • S. Lugo
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      23%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SV
      9%·77.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CS
      5%·70.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      2%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      28%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.5 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.9 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      37%·93.7 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      13%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    35 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      66%·82.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      67%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      33%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Pressly
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      38%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

8

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Jul 22KCKC12@CHCCHC4
Jul 23KCKC0@CHCCHC6
Jul 23KCKC8@CHCCHC4today

Season series

KC wins series 2-1

Jul 22KCKC12@CHCCHC4
Jul 23KCKC0@CHCCHC6
Jul 23KCKC8@CHCCHC4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H

How it ended

KC beat CHC 8-4. Perez's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 55% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right center (406 feet), Frazier scored.

KCTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+19pp→ 69% WP

Perez · homered to left center (384 feet), Pasquantino scored.

KCTop 5th Inning · 6-2
+18pp→ 85% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right center (414 feet), Garcia scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC2020220008
CHC0110001104

Period scoring

KC won 4 · CHC won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Pasquantino 2

0
1

Inn 2

McGuire 1

2
1

Inn 3

Perez 2

Kelly 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Pasquantino 2

2
0

Inn 6

Tolbert 2

0
1

Inn 7

Shaw 1

0
1

Inn 8

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 9

KC
CHC

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 8·CHC 4

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  3. B9

    Shaw lined out to third.

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  7. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Matt Shaw

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  8. B9

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  9. B9

    Turner popped out to second.

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  11. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Justin Turner

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  12. B9

    Turner hit for McGuire

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  13. B9

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  14. B9

    Hoerner flied out to center.

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

    −0.7pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  17. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  18. B9

    Erceg relieved Schreiber

    ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  19. B9

    Rave in right field.

    KC 8·CHC 4

  20. B9

    Melendez in left field.

    KC 8·CHC 4

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 8·CHC 4

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 8·CHC 4

  23. T9

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  24. T9

    Caglianone grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  29. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Jac Caglianone

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

  30. T9

    · ·

    KC 8·CHC 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

8

Runs

4

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

21

TB

14

4

HR

2

3

BB

3

6

K

7

12

LOB

14

Player projections

CHC vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.0low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.6%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278