WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+12NY

1-1

7967

CON

1-1

WNBASun, May 3FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -8.5

NY · top performer

Jonquel Jones

C · #35

15.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Brittney Griner

C · #42

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 4:35

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	18	4	2-6	0-1	—	-2	6	2
J. JonesC · #35	21	15	4-8	3-6	4-4	+10	5	0
R. GardnerG · #7	23	6	0-2	—	6-6	+7	7	1
M. JohannesG · #23	29	12	4-11	4-9	—	+12	4	4
S. IonescuG · #20	16	6	2-8	0-1	2-2	0	1	2
Bench
A. MaleyF · #24	24	13	3-5	1-2	6-6	+9	6	1
A. FowlerF · #12	15	0	0-3	0-2	—	+16	2	0
H. XuC · #21	15	4	2-9	0-2	—	-4	1	1
D. ErdoganG · #17	18	7	3-8	1-3	—	-4	0	1
P. AstierG · #18	22	12	4-5	—	4-4	+16	1	4
Team		79	24-65	9-26	22-22		33	16
DNP: S. Sabally, L. Fiebich, R. Carrera, U. Onyiah, B. Laney-Hamilton, R. Allen, M. Fauthoux

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	16	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-7	4	1
A. MorrowF · #24	16	8	4-11	0-2	0-1	-3	8	0
B. GrinerC · #42	21	16	7-9	2-2	—	-3	4	1
K. BurkeG · #22	24	3	1-7	1-6	—	+1	3	4
S. RiversG · #22	24	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-2	2	4
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	14	5	2-5	1-2	—	-3	0	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	14	9	4-7	—	1-2	-8	4	0
K. OldacreC · #00	5	0	0-1	—	—	-6	0	0
M. HayesG · #21	11	2	1-2	—	—	-2	4	0
T. BigbyG · #2	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	-3	0	2
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	14	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	0
G. KneepkensG · #5	17	5	2-4	1-2	—	-13	2	2
H. TurnerG · #14	14	7	2-4	1-3	2-2	-8	2	0
Team		67	27-66	6-21	7-9		33	15
DNP: A. Edwards, N. Angloma, S. Peddy, L. Lacan, M. Toure

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

24-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-66

FG %

9-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-21

22-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-9

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80

Aug 15

NY@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-39580%

CON+31024%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -8.5↗SpreadBet NY -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

-3.0 since open

Total

165.5

+4.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CON 79-67. J. Jones led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

CONstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 30

Bench(8)

28 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON4th Quarter · 4:40 · 71-65

+10pp→ 26% WP

Derin Erdogan · personal foul

NY4th Quarter · 4:35 · 71-65

+12pp→ 85% WP

Kyla Oldacre · misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot

NY4th Quarter · 2:32 · 74-67

+10pp→ 92% WP

Marine Johannes · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	24	18	19	18	79
CON	20	20	13	14	67

Period scoring

NY won 3 · CON won 1

Maley 6

Griner 7

Ionescu 4

Griner 7

Jones 8

Morrow 12

Johannes 6

Turner 5

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

37%

24-65

41%

27-66

35%

9-26

3PT

29%

6-21

100%

22-22

78%

7-9

Play-by-play · 375 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·2.8
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·3.8
Marine Johannes misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·4.7
Anneli Maley offensive rebound
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·6.1
Pauline Astier misses two point shot
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·17.2
Rebekah Gardner offensive rebound
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·20.9
Marine Johannes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·40.4
Kyla Oldacre lost ball turnover (Marine Johannes steals)
·
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·54.1
Pauline Astier makes 3-foot layup (Rebekah Gardner assists)
·
NY 79·CON 67
Q4·1:09
Kyla Oldacre lost ball turnover (Pauline Astier steals)
·
NY 77·CON 67
Q4·1:09
Pauline Astier vs. Kyla Oldacre (Anneli Maley gains possession)
· ·
NY 77·CON 67
−0.7pp
Q4·1:24
Marine Johannes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)
·
NY 77·CON 67
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Taylor Bigby enters the game for Madison Hayes
·
NY 74·CON 67
Q4·1:26
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 74·CON 67
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Diamond Miller blocks Rebekah Gardner 's 2-foot driving layup
·
NY 74·CON 67
+2pp
Q4·1:33
Harmoni Turner bad pass turnover (Marine Johannes steals)
·
NY 74·CON 67
−3pp
Q4·1:39
Harmoni Turner defensive rebound
NY 74·CON 67
+0.6pp
Q4·1:42
Anneli Maley misses 8-foot two point shot
NY 74·CON 67
+1pp
Q4·2:06
Gianna Kneepkens bad pass turnover (Marine Johannes steals)
·
NY 74·CON 67
−4pp
Q4·2:32
Marine Johannes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 74·CON 67
−10pp
Q4·2:39
Pauline Astier enters the game for Derin Erdogan
·
NY 71·CON 67
Q4·2:39
Official timeout
NY 71·CON 67
Q4·2:39
Diamond Miller personal foul
NY 71·CON 67
−0.8pp
Q4·2:48
Anneli Maley defensive rebound
NY 71·CON 67
−2pp
Q4·2:51
Harmoni Turner misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 71·CON 67
−6pp
Q4·3:00
Madison Hayes defensive rebound
NY 71·CON 67
+2pp
Q4·3:04
Derin Erdogan misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 71·CON 67
+4pp
Q4·3:25
Harmoni Turner makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
NY 71·CON 67
+5pp
Q4·3:37
Harmoni Turner defensive rebound
NY 71·CON 65
+0.9pp

Betting line

NY -8.5·O/U 165.5·NY -395/CON +310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 79–67.

NY -8.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 165.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

43.8%

45.5%

TOV%

ball control

11.8%

18.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

21.9%

23.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

33.8%

10.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.2± 7.6medium
Jonquel JonesNY
14.5± 5.7medium
Brittney GrinerCON
12.3± 5.6low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.1± 5.0medium
Jonquel JonesNY
9.5± 3.9medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.3medium

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.8± 2.8low
Pauline AstierNY
4.1± 1.7medium
Saniya RiversCON
3.2± 2.2medium

Blocks

Jonquel JonesNY
1.6± 1.3medium
Brittney GrinerCON
1.5± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 2.5medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.6± 1.4low
Breanna StewartNY
1.5± 1.4medium
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

CON

46.2%

FG%

◀

44.7

42.6%

34.8%

3PT %

◀

33.5

26.0%

89.1

PPG

◀

85.9

79.2

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop