Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

TOR

11-26

PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDTUSA Net

SEA

7-31

ATS/SEA -6.5O/U/175.5ML/SEA-245

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

1-9

SEA -7.1 vs TOR -11.6 margin

SEA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+40.1

SEA Elo vs TOR Elo

TOR owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing SEA uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 268/26 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasSEA -6.5

Preview · WNBA

oronto Tempo visit Seattle Storm Wednesday at 8/26 - 10:00 PM EDT.

Vegas opened SEA as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 175.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 71% break-even, TOR the inverse.

For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 175.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

FG %

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 13

SEA73@

TOR86

May 30

SEA72@

TOR93

Aug 27

TOR@

SEAtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

175.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

TOR+20033%

SEA-24571%

40· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -6.5↗SpreadBet SEA -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+3.0 since open

Total

175.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

TOR @ SEA

8/26 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineSEA lost 3 in a row.

Rest going in

TORLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 23

SEALong rest

3 days

last game Aug 23

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

SEA -6.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

175.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SEA -245

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

TORmetricSEA

11-26

Record

7-31

Conf rank

-6.4

Pt diff

-5.5

Streak

1-9

Last 10

1-9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

SEA -6.5·O/U 175.5·TOR +200/SEA -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs TOR.

SEA has dropped 3 straight; TOR is 1-9 over its last 10.

51.6%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA1–9-7.1
TOR1–9-11.6

Situational

SEA3d rest
TOR3d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 1 straight road games; TOR has 0.

Model angle

+16.5ppon TOR

TOR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

▼Line steam-1.8pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-1.5pp

Players to watch

Marina MabreyTOR
20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.
Dominique MalongaSEA
17.6points · ±6.7
Dominique Malonga · 17.6 pts · last-10 18.4 vs season 16.4.
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
14.8points · ±7.4
Flau'jae Johnson · 14.8 pts · last-10 15.5 vs season 13.9.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

SEA is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-13SEA @ TOR73–86
2026-05-30SEA @ TOR72–93

Line move

open -170→-245toward SEA

The market has moved 8.1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
53.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TOR.

TOR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

+16.5

pp edge · TOR

-7.88

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on TOR

52.5%

±6.9pp band

5u large — +19.2pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+20.6pp

+4.1pp post-cal

Kelly

28.7%

5.0% sized

Decimal

3.00

+19.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 16.5pp · TOR over SEA

▼
Line steam90% conf
The market moved 7.9pp away from TOR since open.
-1.8pp
▲
Model confidence90% conf
TOR clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split64% conf
SEA's venue form trims TOR's edge by 33.3pp.
-1.5pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+200

Open no-vig

39.8%

Close no-vig

31.9%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.5pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+200DraftKings

edge +16.5pp · implied 31.9%

SEA

no live price

Book	TOR	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+200★	-245	+16.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.7± 8.0high
Dominique MalongaSEA
17.6± 6.7high
Brittney SykesTOR
17.5± 11.4medium

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.6± 2.9high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.2± 4.2high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.0± 3.8high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
5.6± 3.0high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.5± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 2.3high

Blocks

Dominique MalongaSEA
1.7± 1.4high
Ezi MagbegorSEA
1.3± 1.9low
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.6± 1.0high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.2± 1.2high
Jade MelbourneSEA
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

ValkyriesSun8/26 - 7:00 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm

SEA vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like TOR.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs TOR.