Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at GS?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

MIN

29-7

PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDTUSA Net

25-9

ATS/MIN -2.5O/U/165.5ML/MIN-130

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

GS +8.8 vs MIN +8.6 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-2.0 days

GS 2 rest vs MIN 4

MIN has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+85.8

GS Elo vs MIN Elo

MIN owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing GS uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 198/19 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -2.5

Preview · WNBA

innesota Lynx visit Golden State Valkyries Wednesday at 8/19 - 10:00 PM EDT. MIN arrives on a 4-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7). GS arrives on a 6-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7).

Vegas opened MIN as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 165.5. GS's moneyline implies a 48% break-even, MIN the inverse. MIN comes in with 2 extra days of rest.

For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 165.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↗ 1.0pt over 6h50m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Jun 5

GS84@

MIN87

Jun 20

MIN81@

GS75

Aug 20

MIN@

GStoday

Aug 25

GS@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

MIN-13057%

GS+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

165.5

+1.0 since open

Scouting report

MIN @ GS

8/19 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineMIN riding a 4-game win streak · GS on a 6-game roll.

Rest going in

MIN +2 days

MINLong rest

4 days

last game Aug 15

GSStandard

2 days

last game Aug 17

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

MIN -2.5

Model

GS -2.3

Edge

split

Total

Market

165.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIN -130

Model

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

MINmetricGS

29-7

Record

25-9

Conf rank

+8.8

Pt diff

+6.7

Streak

9-1

Last 10

8-2

84.0

Power score

86.3

Power rank

80.3

Sched ahead

73.0

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 165.5·MIN -130/GS +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

GS vs MIN.

GS enters on a 6-game win streak; MIN is 9-1 over its last 10.

42.1%

model · GS win prob

Recent form

GS8–2+8.8
MIN9–1+8.6

Situational

GS2d rest
MIN4d rest
-2.0d differential

MIN has 2 more rest days. GS has 0 straight road games; MIN has 2.

Model angle

+3.6ppon MIN

MIN's edge is mostly rest advantage plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▼Model confidence-0.8pp
▲Rest advantage+0.6pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp

Players to watch

Olivia MilesMIN
19.4points · ±6.0
Olivia Miles · 19.4 pts · last-10 19.7 vs season 18.9.
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.2points · ±10.3
Kayla McBride · 19.2 pts · last-10 19.9 vs season 18.1.
Gabby WilliamsGS
15.1points · ±4.6
Gabby Williams · 15.1 pts · last-10 15.1 vs season 15.

Head-to-head · 0-7 · last 7

GS is 0-7 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-09-12GS @ MIN53–72
2025-09-14GS @ MIN72–101
2025-09-18MIN @ GS75–74
2026-06-04GS @ MIN84–87
2026-06-19MIN @ GS81–75

Line move

open +105→+110toward MIN

The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.8%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
47.7%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
52.2%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.9%
P(GS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

3.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

75% · medium

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIN.

MIN's edge is mostly rest advantage plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+3.6

pp edge · MIN

4.9u · large

on MIN

65.1%

±8.3pp band

4.93u large — +8.6pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.8pp

+7.2pp post-cal

Kelly

19.7%

4.9% sized

Decimal

1.77

+8.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.6pp · MIN over GS

▼
Model confidence68% conf
MIN sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
MIN has 4 days rest; GS has 2.
+0.6pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIN has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
MIN is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward MIN since open.
+0.4pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
MIN's venue form is 7.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.4pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at GS?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

GS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
19.4± 6.0high
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.2± 10.3high
Napheesa CollierMIN
19.1± 4.0low

Rebounds

Napheesa CollierMIN
7.3± 2.2low
Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 2.9high
Kiah StokesGS
5.7± 2.3high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.5± 3.2high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.8± 2.4high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.4± 2.5high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.7± 1.4high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.2± 1.6low
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
2.0± 1.4high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.8± 1.2high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.7± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

TempoMystics8/19 - 7:30 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries

GS vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like MIN.

GS vs MIN.