Recent form
7-3
WSH +3.0 vs LA -4.2 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
LA
LA
12-21
PregameSat, 7:30 PM EDTMNMT, WNBA League Pass, Spectrum Sports Net
WSH
WSH
19-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Washington Mystics Saturday at 8/15 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.
Vegas opened WSH as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 172.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 73% break-even, LA the inverse.
For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 172.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
47
FG %
44
Season series
LA leads series 1-0
May 29LA92@WSH87
LA92@WSH87Aug 15LA@WSHtoday
LA@WSHtodayAug 29WSH@LAupcoming
WSH@LAupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
WSH -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
172.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LA+22031%WSH-27073%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
+1.0 since open
Total
172.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
LA @ WSH
StorylineLA dropped 3 straight.
Rest going in
LAStandard
1 day
last game Aug 13
WSHStandard
1 day
last game Aug 13
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
WSH -6.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
172.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
WSH -270
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
LAmetricWSH
12-21
Record
19-14
#7
Conf rank
#4
-4.5
Pt diff
-1.0
L3
Streak
L2
2-8
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
WSH -6.5·O/U 172.5·LA +220/WSH -270
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs LA.
WSH is 7-3 recently; LA is 2-8.
73.4%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH7–3+3.0
- LA2–8-4.2
Situational
- WSH2d rest
- LA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 2 straight road games; LA has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Shakira AustinWSH19.8points · ±5.0
Shakira Austin · 19.8 pts · last-10 21.9 vs season 16.7.
- Sonia CitronWSH16.4points · ±4.1
Sonia Citron · 16.4 pts · last-10 16.4 vs season 16.4.
- Dearica HambyLA16.3points · ±3.7
Dearica Hamby · 16.3 pts · last-10 17.2 vs season 14.9.
Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5
WSH is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-16WSH @ LA80–99
- 2025-07-22LA @ WSH93–86
- 2025-08-17LA @ WSH86–95
- 2025-09-01WSH @ LA78–81
- 2026-05-29LA @ WSH92–87
Line move
open -218→-270toward WSH
The market has moved 4.4pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
70.8%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
69.7%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
66.2%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
67.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.45 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+4.27
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-218
Close price
-270
Open no-vig
65.7%
Close no-vig
70.0%
Market steamed in our direction
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at WSH?
- The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
WSH vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH19.8± 5.0high
- Sonia CitronWSH16.4± 4.1high
- Dearica HambyLA16.3± 3.6high
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH10.1± 3.5high
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.9± 2.4high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA8.7± 2.5high
Assists
- Erica WheelerLA6.0± 2.4high
- Sonia CitronWSH4.3± 2.3high
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.5± 2.5high
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.9± 0.9high
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.4high
- Lauren BettsWSH1.0± 1.3high
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.6± 1.2high
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 0.5high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA1.1± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA