Recent form
3-7
POR -1.3 vs SEA -5.6 margin
POR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Portland Fire at Seattle Storm
POR
POR
13-20
PregameFri, 10:00 PM EDTION
SEA
SEA
7-28
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Seattle Storm Friday at 8/14 - 10:00 PM EDT. POR is 2-4 in their last 6.
Vegas opened SEA as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 179.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, POR the inverse. SEA comes in with 2 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 179.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
45
FG %
43
Season series
POR leads series 3-0
Jun 18SEA89@POR94
SEA89@POR94Jul 5POR77@SEA72
POR77@SEA72Aug 9SEA93@POR100
SEA93@POR100Aug 15POR@SEAtoday
POR@SEAtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
179.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6h
Moneyline
POR+11447%SEA-13557%7· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
179.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
POR @ SEA
Rest going in
SEA +2 days
PORStandard
2 days
last game Aug 12
SEALong rest
4 days
last game Aug 10
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
SEA -2.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
179.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
SEA -135
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PORmetricSEA
13-20
Record
7-28
#5
Conf rank
#8
-4.8
Pt diff
-5.2
L1
Streak
W1
3-7
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
SEA -2.5·O/U 179.5·POR +114/SEA -135
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs POR.
SEA is 1-9 recently; POR is 3-7.
35.3%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA1–9-5.6
- POR3–7-1.3
Situational
- SEA4d rest
- POR2d rest
- +2.0d differential
SEA has 2 more rest days. SEA has 0 straight road games; POR has 0.
Model angle
+19.8ppon POR
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Rest advantage-0.6pp
- ▲Head to head+0.6pp
Players to watch
- Dominique MalongaSEA18.8points · ±6.4
Dominique Malonga · 18.8 pts · last-10 20.2 vs season 16.7.
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.1points · ±6.8
Bridget Carleton · 16.1 pts · last-10 17.1 vs season 14.5.
- Carla LeitePOR15.8points · ±6.6
Carla Leite · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.1 vs season 15.3.
Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3
SEA is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-17SEA @ POR89–94
- 2026-07-04POR @ SEA77–72
- 2026-08-08SEA @ POR93–100
Line move
open -135→-142toward SEA
The market has moved 1.2pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.3%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
45.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
42.2%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.43 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like POR.
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.
+19.8
pp edge · POR
0.00
CLV pp
5.0u · large
on POR
74.2%
±8.2pp band
5u large — +27.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+29.3pp
+9.5pp post-cal
Kelly
51.6%
5.0% sized
Decimal
2.14
+27.5pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 19.8pp · POR over SEA
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
POR clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▼-0.6ppRest advantage65% conf
SEA has the rest edge entering this game.
- ▲+0.6ppHead to head48% conf
POR has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- ▼-0.5ppLine steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp away from POR since open.
- ▼-0.4ppVenue split66% conf
SEA's venue form trims POR's edge by 7.5pp.
Open price
+114
Close price
+114
Open no-vig
44.9%
Close no-vig
44.9%
Line barely moved
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at SEA?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+19.8pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
POR
★ best+114DraftKings
edge +19.8pp · implied 44.9%
SEA
no live price
| Book | POR | SEA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +114★ | -135 | +19.8 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
SEA vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 110 high confidence
Points
- Dominique MalongaSEA18.8± 6.4high
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.1± 6.8high
- Carla LeitePOR15.8± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA9.8± 2.5high
- Awa FamSEA6.2± 3.8high
- Bridget CarletonPOR5.2± 3.1high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.9± 3.5high
- Natisha HiedemanSEA5.4± 2.6high
- Jade MelbourneSEA4.2± 1.6high
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.3high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.0± 0.7high
- Awa FamSEA0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.8± 1.2high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.5± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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