Recent form
4-6
PHX -3.6 vs LA -4.9 margin
PHX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks
PHX
PHX
12-22
PregameTue, 10:00 PM EDTNBA TV
LA
LA
12-19
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Los Angeles Sparks Tuesday at 8/11 - 10:00 PM EDT. PHX has lost 3 straight (3-4 in their last 7). LA is 2-4 in their last 6.
Vegas opened LA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. LA's moneyline implies a 56% break-even, PHX the inverse.
For bettors: the LA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 28 over 6.2h38m ago
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LA
Home
44
FG %
47
Season series
LA leads series 2-1
May 22LA97@PHX88
LA97@PHX88Jun 14LA111@PHX102
LA111@PHX102Jul 22PHX86@LA82
PHX86@LA82Aug 12PHX@LAtoday
PHX@LAtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
PHX+10549%LA-12556%28· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
178.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
PHX @ LA
StorylinePHX dropped 3 straight.
Rest going in
PHXStandard
2 days
last game Aug 9
LAStandard
2 days
last game Aug 9
Model edge vs market
Pass · split signalSpread
Market
LA -1.5
Model
PHX -2.4
Edge
split
Total
Market
178.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
LA -125
Model
PHX
Edge
fading market
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PHXmetricLA
12-22
Record
12-19
#7
Conf rank
#6
-3.8
Pt diff
-4.4
L3
Streak
L1
4-6
Last 10
2-8
40.4
Power score
38.0
#9
Power rank
#10
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
LA -1.5·O/U 178.5·PHX +105/LA -125
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
LA vs PHX.
LA is 2-8 recently; PHX is 4-6.
63.3%
model · LA win prob
Recent form
- LA2–8-4.9
- PHX4–6-3.6
Situational
- LA2d rest
- PHX2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LA has 0 straight road games; PHX has 4.
Model angle
+10.2ppon LA
LA's edge is mostly line steam plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.
- ▲Line steam+4.0pp
- ▲Model confidence+3.3pp
- ▲Travel burden+2.4pp
Players to watch
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.5points · ±7.7
Kahleah Copper · 19.5 pts · last-10 19.2 vs season 20.
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.8points · ±4.5
Nneka Ogwumike · 16.8 pts · last-10 16.7 vs season 16.9.
- Dearica HambyLA15.5points · ±4.4
Dearica Hamby · 15.5 pts · last-10 15.9 vs season 14.8.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
LA is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-08-27PHX @ LA92–84
- 2025-09-10LA @ PHX88–83
- 2026-05-21LA @ PHX97–88
- 2026-06-13LA @ PHX111–102
- 2026-07-22PHX @ LA86–82
Line move
open -105→-130toward LA
The market has moved 5.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.5%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
63.4%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
67.9%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.6%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.64 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
82% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like LA.
LA's edge is mostly line steam plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.
+10.2
pp edge · LA
+4.33
CLV pp · steam
4.4u · large
on LA
63.3%
±8.3pp band
4.36u large — +7.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.
Edge
+10.1pp
-0.1pp post-cal
Kelly
17.4%
4.4% sized
Decimal
1.80
+7.7pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.2pp · LA over PHX
- ▲+4.0ppLine steam89% conf
The market moved 5.4pp toward LA since open.
- ▲+3.3ppModel confidence90% conf
LA clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▲+2.4ppTravel burden58% conf
PHX is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
- ▲+0.4ppHead to head48% conf
LA has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Open price
-105
Close price
-125
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
53.2%
Market steamed in our direction
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at LA?
- The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
LA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 85 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumPHX20.4± 12.3medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.5± 7.7high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.8± 4.5high
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA8.9± 2.9high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.0± 2.9high
- Dearica HambyLA7.2± 3.7high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.6± 3.4high
- Erica WheelerLA5.9± 2.5high
- Kelsey PlumPHX5.3± 3.4medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.7± 1.1high
- DeWanna BonnerPHX0.8± 1.0high
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Dearica HambyLA1.5± 0.7high
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.4± 0.8high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.3± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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