WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+20GS

7-7

5878

9-5

WNBAMon, Jun 15FinalSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasGS -5.5

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Los Angeles Sparks, 78–58. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

GS -5.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 173.5 by 37.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Rae Burrell

G · #12

9.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Kaila Charles

G · #6

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	29	9	3-9	1-2	2-2	-22	7	2
D. HambyF · #5	27	6	3-5	—	—	-6	10	3
E. WheelerG · #17	28	0	0-7	0-5	—	-11	4	5
K. PlumG · #10	29	9	3-10	1-4	2-3	-22	1	1
A. AtkinsG · #7	21	6	3-11	0-7	—	-11	0	2
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	15	10	4-5	0-1	2-5	-4	2	0
S. FeaginF · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
JihyunF · #6	4	2	1-2	—	—	-2	1	0
R. BurrellG · #12	22	13	2-8	0-1	9-10	-10	1	1
K. MartinG · #21	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	+2	3	2
T. LatsonG · #0	4	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
C. GrayG · #2	8	0	0-1	—	—	-11	2	0
Team		58	20-60	3-21	15-20		33	16
DNP: E. Cannon

DNP: E. Cannon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	23	6	2-6	0-3	2-2	+5	2	1
G. WilliamsF · #1	28	16	6-12	1-3	3-3	+17	4	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	18	10	5-12	0-2	—	+5	3	3
K. StokesC · #41	30	4	1-1	1-1	1-2	+15	7	1
V. BurtonG · #22	30	12	4-12	2-4	2-4	+15	2	3
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. SalaunF · #13	25	7	1-8	1-4	4-4	+18	4	2
T. HayesG · #15	10	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	+1	0	2
K. CharlesG · #6	22	13	5-7	2-3	1-2	+15	8	5
K. ChenG · #2	10	6	3-4	—	—	+5	3	1
J. JocyteG · #4	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		78	28-66	7-21	15-19		33	19
DNP: N. Fingall

DNP: N. Fingall

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Jun 16

LA58@

GS78today

Aug 9

GS@

LAupcoming

Sep 25

GS@

LAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

LA+17037%

GS-20567%

13· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -5.5↗SpreadBet GS -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

173.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLA ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 5:24

R. Burrell

Game leader · 22 min

13 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST

K. Charles

Game leader · 22 min

13 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

GS beat LA 78-58. K. Charles led with 13 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 25-10 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 13

Bench(7)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

GSstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LA1st Quarter · 5:24 · 5-8

+9pp→ 40% WP

Gabby Williams · technical foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	10	16	21	11	58
GS	25	20	16	17	78

Period scoring

LA won 1 · GS won 3

Plum 6

Salaun 7

Brink 8

Charles 6

Hamby 6

Charles 5

Burrell 7

Williams 8

Shooting comparison

33%

20-60

42%

28-66

14%

3-21

3PT

33%

7-21

75%

15-20

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 396 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 58·GS 78
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 58·GS 78
Q4·5.3
Kaitlyn Chen makes 5-foot layup (Janelle Salaun assists)
·
LA 58·GS 78
Q4·11.3
Ta'Niya Latson lost ball turnover (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·16.1
Chance Gray defensive rebound
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·17.3
Kaitlyn Chen misses layup
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·19.9
Chance Gray lost ball turnover (Kaitlyn Chen steals)
·
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·21.6
Sania Feagin defensive rebound
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·24.5
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·41.1
Jihyun Park makes two point shot
LA 58·GS 76
Q4·41.5
Jihyun Park offensive rebound
LA 56·GS 76
Q4·44.2
Jihyun Park misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
LA 56·GS 76
Q4·1:03
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
LA 56·GS 76
Q4·1:19
Sania Feagin enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:19
Chance Gray out of bounds bad pass turnover
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:24
Juste Jocyte bad pass turnover (Dearica Hamby steals)
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:31
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:33
Ta'Niya Latson misses driving layup
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:42
Kate Martin defensive rebound
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·1:46
Janelle Salaun misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:06
Jihyun Park enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:06
Cecilia Zandalasini enters the game for Gabby Williams
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:06
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:06
Ariel Atkins misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Ta'Niya Latson enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Ariel Atkins enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Juste Jocyte enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
LA 56·GS 74
Q4·2:12
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 56·GS 74

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

20-60

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-66

FG %

3-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-21

15-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

GS -5.5·O/U 173.5·LA +170/GS -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.0%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
69.9%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
68.4%
P(GS win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.7%
P(GS win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.05

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-180

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.4pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+750DraftKings

edge +20.4pp · implied 11.2%

no live price

Book	LA	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+750★	-1450	+20.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
24.4± 14.0low
Gabby WilliamsGS
17.3± 8.3medium
Nneka OgwumikeLA
15.0± 5.7medium

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 4.8medium
Dearica HambyLA
7.6± 2.8medium
Kayla ThorntonGS
5.6± 3.4medium

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.4± 3.8low
Veronica BurtonGS
5.4± 2.7medium
Erica WheelerLA
4.6± 2.5medium

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.6± 1.6medium
Cameron BrinkLA
1.5± 0.8medium
Veronica BurtonGS
0.9± 1.8medium

Steals

Ariel AtkinsLA
1.8± 1.5medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.5± 1.0medium
Dearica HambyLA
1.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

46.0%

FG%

◀

44.4

40.6%

31.5%

3PT %

33.1

▶

35.9%

88.1

PPG

◀

85.3

84.6

19.7

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.9

14.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

9.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop