Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at LA?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17LA

POR

6-7

7289

5-6

WNBASun, Jun 7FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasLA -7.5

POR · top performer

Megan DiLeo

C · #17

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #30

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10.1

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	26	7	1-4	1-4	4-4	-10	7	2
E. EngstlerF · #21	25	10	4-7	0-2	2-2	-12	8	0
GustafsonC · #17	25	16	6-13	0-2	4-5	-14	11	0
S. BarkerG · #3	28	6	2-8	1-5	1-1	-15	2	7
C. LeiteG · #0	25	10	4-13	0-2	2-6	-21	4	4
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	15	7	3-10	1-5	—	-5	2	1
N. PuochF · #13	14	4	2-3	—	—	-7	1	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	15	4	2-4	0-2	—	-3	4	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	11	6	1-3	0-2	4-4	-2	1	0
T. OblakG · #7	17	2	1-7	0-4	—	+4	2	5
Team		72	26-72	3-28	17-22		42	19
DNP: H. Winterburn, J. Harrison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	32	20	8-14	2-6	2-2	+24	17	2
D. HambyF · #5	30	22	8-14	0-1	6-10	+12	12	0
E. WheelerG · #17	27	6	2-7	2-6	—	+32	1	4
K. PlumG · #10	35	16	5-10	1-3	5-5	+16	6	7
A. AtkinsG · #7	18	6	3-9	0-3	—	+8	2	2
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	10	2	0-3	—	2-2	+1	0	0
R. BurrellG · #12	26	10	4-11	2-6	—	+4	3	1
K. MartinG · #21	8	5	2-5	1-3	0-1	-3	0	1
C. GrayG · #2	15	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	-9	1	0
Team		89	32-75	8-30	17-22		42	17
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, L. Ziegler, T. Latson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

26-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-75

FG %

3-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-30

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

Jun 7

POR72@

LA89today

Aug 2

LA@

PORupcoming

Sep 20

POR@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+23530%

LA-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -7.5↗SpreadBet LA -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat POR 89-72. N. Ogwumike led with 20 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. LA outscored the other side 23-12 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 31

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 16

LAstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 38 REB · 15 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

GS 4

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	21	22	12	17	72
LA	24	17	23	25	89

Period scoring

POR won 1 · LA won 3

Gustafson 6

Ogwumike 7

Gustafson 6

Oblak 6

Engstler 3

Plum 9

Gustafson 6

Hamby 9

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

36%

26-72

43%

32-75

11%

3-28

3PT

27%

8-30

77%

17-22

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 72·LA 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 72·LA 89
Q4·2.0
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
POR 72·LA 89
Q4·3.7
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
POR 72·LA 87
Q4·4.7
Kelsey Plum misses driving layup
POR 72·LA 87
Q4·6.9
Emily Engstler bad pass turnover (Kelsey Plum steals)
·
POR 72·LA 87
Q4·7.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
POR 72·LA 87
Q4·29.5
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot two point shot (Bridget Carleton assists)
·
POR 72·LA 84
Q4·31.3
Bridget Carleton offensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·34.1
Megan Gustafson misses 9-foot two point shot
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·37.8
Megan Gustafson offensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·39.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·47.3
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·49.6
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·1:09
Emily Engstler makes running layup
POR 70·LA 84
Q4·1:13
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:14
Sarah Ashlee Barker blocks Dearica Hamby 's 5-foot two point shot
·
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:15
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:17
Dearica Hamby misses 6-foot floating jump shot
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:19
Rae Burrell offensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:23
Nneka Ogwumike misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:43
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot layup (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
POR 68·LA 84
Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 66·LA 84
Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 66·LA 83
Q4·1:53
Emily Engstler personal foul
POR 66·LA 82
Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum offensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82
Q4·1:53
Erica Wheeler misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 66·LA 82
Q4·1:54
Nneka Ogwumike offensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82
Q4·1:56
Megan Gustafson blocks Rae Burrell 's 8-foot layup
·
POR 66·LA 82
Q4·2:16
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82

Betting line

LA -7.5·O/U 174.5·POR +235/LA -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks held off Portland Fire, 89–72.

LA -7.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 174.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

38.2%

48.0%

TOV%

ball control

15.5%

12.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.1%

34.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

23.6%

22.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · G
eFG%.60289
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
64.8%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
67.2%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.37

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at LA?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.1pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+210DraftKings

edge +10.1pp · implied 30.4%

no live price

Book	POR	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	+210★	-280	+10.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Dearica HambyLA
6.4± 2.5high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Megan DiLeoPOR
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Portland FireLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Sky68Tempo85Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop