POR
6-7
LA
5-6
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Portland Fire, 89–72.
LA -7.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 174.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
POR · top performer
Megan Gustafson
C · #17
16
Pts
11
Reb
0
Ast
LA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #30
20
Pts
17
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 7 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 4-4 | -10 | 7 | 2 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -12 | 8 | 0 | |
| 25 | 16 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 4-5 | -14 | 11 | 0 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | -15 | 2 | 7 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 2-6 | -21 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-5 | — | -5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | — | +4 | 2 | 5 | |
| Team | 72 | 26-72 | 3-28 | 17-22 | 42 | 19 | ||
| DNP: H. Winterburn, J. Harrison | ||||||||
DNP: H. Winterburn, J. Harrison
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 20 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +24 | 17 | 2 | |
| 30 | 22 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 6-10 | +12 | 12 | 0 | |
| 27 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | — | +32 | 1 | 4 | |
| 35 | 16 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 5-5 | +16 | 6 | 7 | |
| 18 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-3 | — | +8 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 2 | 0-3 | — | 2-2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-6 | — | +4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -9 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 89 | 32-75 | 8-30 | 17-22 | 42 | 17 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, L. Ziegler, T. Latson | ||||||||
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, Jihyun, L. Ziegler, T. Latson
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
36
FG %
43
19
Ast
17
Season series
LA leads series 1-0
POR72@LA89todayLA@PORupcomingPOR@LAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
174.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+23530%LA-29074%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
+1.0 since open
Total
174.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10.1
PORM. Gustafson
CGame leader · 25 minDouble-double
16 PTS · 11 REB · 0 AST
LAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 minDouble-double
20 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LA beat POR 89-72. N. Ogwumike led with 20 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. LA outscored the other side 23-12 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST
GS 31
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 16
LAstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 38 REB · 15 AST
GS 67
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 21 | 22 | 12 | 17 | 72 |
| LA | 24 | 17 | 23 | 25 | 89 |
Period scoring
POR won 1 · LA won 3
Q1
Gustafson 6
Ogwumike 7
Q2
Gustafson 6
Oblak 6
Q3
Engstler 3
Plum 9
Q4
Gustafson 6
Hamby 9
Shooting comparison
36%
26-72
FG
43%
32-75
11%
3-28
3PT
27%
8-30
77%
17-22
FT
77%
17-22
Play-by-play · 439 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 72·LA 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 72·LA 89
- Q4·2.0
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
POR 72·LA 89
- Q4·3.7
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
POR 72·LA 87
- Q4·4.7
Kelsey Plum misses driving layup
POR 72·LA 87
- Q4·6.9
Emily Engstler bad pass turnover (Kelsey Plum steals)
·
POR 72·LA 87
- Q4·7.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
POR 72·LA 87
- Q4·29.5
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot two point shot (Bridget Carleton assists)
·
POR 72·LA 84
- Q4·31.3
Bridget Carleton offensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·34.1
Megan Gustafson misses 9-foot two point shot
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·37.8
Megan Gustafson offensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·39.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·47.3
Bridget Carleton defensive rebound
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·49.6
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·1:09
Emily Engstler makes running layup
POR 70·LA 84
- Q4·1:13
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:14
Sarah Ashlee Barker blocks Dearica Hamby 's 5-foot two point shot
·
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:15
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:17
Dearica Hamby misses 6-foot floating jump shot
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:19
Rae Burrell offensive rebound
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:23
Nneka Ogwumike misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:43
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot layup (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
POR 68·LA 84
- Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 66·LA 84
- Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 66·LA 83
- Q4·1:53
Emily Engstler personal foul
POR 66·LA 82
- Q4·1:53
Kelsey Plum offensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82
- Q4·1:53
Erica Wheeler misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 66·LA 82
- Q4·1:54
Nneka Ogwumike offensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82
- Q4·1:56
Megan Gustafson blocks Rae Burrell 's 8-foot layup
·
POR 66·LA 82
- Q4·2:16
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
POR 66·LA 82
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
LA
Home
26-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-75
36
FG %
43
3-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-30
17-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-22
19
Assists
17
15
Turnovers
12
Betting line
LA -7.5·O/U 174.5·POR +235/LA -290
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Kelsey PlumLA · GTS%.68699- Megan GustafsonPOR · CTS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · GUSG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · GeFG%.60289- Nneka OgwumikeLA · FDRB%.25989
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.1%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
64.3%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
67.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
67.6%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.37
CLV pp
Open price
+250
Close price
+245
Open no-vig
27.4%
Close no-vig
27.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.9pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
POR
★ bestedge +8.9pp · implied 30.4%
LA
no live price
| Book | POR | LA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +210★ | -280 | +8.9 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
LA vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.5± 6.4low
- Carla LeitePOR13.3± 5.4medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 5.7low
- Dearica HambyLA7.9± 3.8medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.1± 3.4medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Carla LeitePOR5.4± 3.6medium
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.0± 1.2medium
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.9low
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.7medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.3± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
LA
44.9%
FG%
44.3
▶46.0%
33.7%
3PT %
33.0
31.5%
81.5
PPG
85.2
▶88.1
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
19.7
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.7