WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7SEA

SEA

1-1

8982

CON

0-2

WNBASun, May 10FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasCON -1.5

SEA · top performer

Lexie Brown

G · #8

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 5:59

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	15	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	-4	3	1
S. DolsonC · #31	21	6	1-3	0-2	4-4	+11	4	0
D. MalongaC · #14	20	6	2-6	—	2-2	+15	7	0
N. HiedemanG · #2	26	11	5-10	0-1	1-2	-2	2	3
F. JohnsonG · #4	30	16	3-10	1-3	9-10	+11	6	1
Bench
M. HolmesF · #54	23	5	2-6	1-3	—	-4	6	2
G. VanSlootenF · #40	10	5	2-2	1-1	—	+2	2	0
L. BrownG · #8	21	17	6-7	5-6	—	+5	0	1
Z. CookeG · #7	12	4	1-6	1-3	1-2	-3	1	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	23	15	4-7	1-2	6-11	+4	1	6
Team		89	27-61	10-22	25-33		32	14
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, T. Mair

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	27	13	3-10	2-4	5-6	-10	5	1
B. GrinerC · #42	28	16	6-11	0-1	4-4	-9	6	0
K. BurkeG · #25	34	12	3-11	2-6	4-6	+5	6	5
S. RiversG · #22	20	2	1-8	0-2	—	-22	1	3
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	20	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	-11	2	2
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	31	17	7-15	3-6	0-2	-1	16	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	12	5	2-2	—	1-2	+2	1	1
H. Van LithG · #2	20	9	4-8	1-2	—	+4	3	4
G. KneepkensG · #5	8	2	1-2	—	—	+7	1	1
Team		82	29-73	8-23	16-22		41	18
DNP: A. Edwards, R. Beers, S. Peddy, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CON

Home

27-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-73

FG %

10-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-23

25-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 10

SEA89@

CON82today

May 21

CON80@

SEA78

May 23

CON59@

SEA77

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CON -1.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

3.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEA+10549%

CON-12556%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CON -1.5↗SpreadBet CON -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

-1.0 since open

Total

164.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat CON 89-82. L. Brown led with 17 PTS, 0 REB, 1 AST. CON outscored the other side 25-15 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 22 REB · 5 AST

GS 30

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

CONstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 23

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 21 REB · 7 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON4th Quarter · 5:59 · 76-73

+16pp→ 38% WP

Brittney Griner · makes free throw 1 of 2

SEA4th Quarter · 4:32 · 76-74

+17pp→ 65% WP

Brittney Griner · misses 8-foot two point shot

CON4th Quarter · 3:38 · 80-79

+14pp→ 40% WP

Kennedy Burke · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aneesah Morrow assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	29	15	19	26	89
CON	24	25	12	21	82

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · CON won 1

Johnson 7

Miller 8

VanSlooten 5

Cooke 12

Brown 12

Lith 5

Melbourne 8

Burke 6

SEA

CON

Shooting comparison

SEA

CON

44%

27-61

40%

29-73

45%

10-22

3PT

35%

8-23

76%

25-33

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 441 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·7.2
Jordan Horston offensive rebound
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·11.0
Dominique Malonga misses 16-foot jumper
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·30.4
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 89·CON 82
−0.5pp
Q4·33.4
Kennedy Burke misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 89·CON 82
−1pp
Q4·36.2
Sun Full timeout
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·36.2
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·37.0
Jade Melbourne misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 89·CON 82
+2pp
Q4·37.0
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 89·CON 82
Q4·37.0
Jordan Horston enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
SEA 88·CON 82
Q4·37.0
Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Diamond Miller
·
SEA 88·CON 82
Q4·37.0
Diamond Miller personal take foul
SEA 88·CON 82
−2pp
Q4·41.4
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
SEA 88·CON 82
Q4·41.4
Storm Full timeout
SEA 88·CON 82
Q4·42.0
Brittney Griner makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 88·CON 82
−2pp
Q4·42.0
Brittney Griner makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 88·CON 81
+0.5pp
Q4·42.0
Jade Melbourne personal foul
SEA 88·CON 80
+2pp
Q4·54.9
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 88·CON 80
Q4·54.9
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 87·CON 80
Q4·54.9
Jade Melbourne misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 87·CON 80
+0.5pp
Q4·54.9
Diamond Miller personal take foul
SEA 87·CON 80
−1pp
Q4·1:02
Aneesah Morrow lost ball turnover (Jade Melbourne steals)
·
SEA 87·CON 80
−2pp
Q4·1:07
Jordan Horston enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
SEA 87·CON 80
Q4·1:07
Sun Full timeout
SEA 87·CON 80
Q4·1:07
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 87·CON 80
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 86·CON 80
−9pp
Q4·1:07
Kennedy Burke makes technical free throw
SEA 85·CON 80
+1pp
Q4·1:07
Flau'jae Johnson technical foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 85·CON 79
+9pp
Q4·1:07
Brittney Griner shooting foul
SEA 85·CON 79
−3pp

Betting line

CON -1.5·O/U 164.5·SEA +105/CON -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 89–82.

SEA +1.5 cashed (CON lost outright). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

CON

eFG%

shooting

52.5%

45.2%

TOV%

ball control

15.6%

16.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

18.4%

28.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

41.0%

21.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
41.1%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
42.2%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
43.6%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CON vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.0± 7.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
14.9± 7.9high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop