Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+16GS

PHX

1-1

7995

2-0

WNBASun, May 10FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -2.5

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

16.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Janelle Salaun

F · #13

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 7:34

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	32	5	2-9	0-3	1-1	-1	8	3
A. ThomasF · #25	38	19	5-9	—	9-12	-9	9	11
N. MackF · #4	29	11	4-5	1-1	2-2	-11	2	1
K. CopperG · #2	36	11	4-15	1-4	2-2	-16	1	4
J. NogicG · #29	27	16	5-6	4-5	2-2	+3	1	1
Bench
A. MaleyF · #15	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
N. BrochantF · #1	16	9	3-5	3-5	—	-11	1	0
K. LinskensC · #31	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-6	0	0
K. WilliamsG · #23	12	6	2-2	2-2	—	-14	1	0
Q. CarterG · #20	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-13	1	0
Team		79	26-54	11-22	16-19		24	20
DNP: P. Williams, S. Whitcomb

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	31	19	8-14	3-8	—	+6	3	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	32	19	7-13	4-9	1-1	+12	5	3
K. StokesC · #41	13	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	-15	3	0
K. CharlesG · #6	33	7	2-8	1-5	2-2	-3	4	1
V. BurtonG · #22	32	13	3-9	1-5	6-6	+12	3	12
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	24	13	5-7	—	3-4	+33	6	5
J. SalaunF · #13	26	21	7-10	4-5	3-3	+27	3	2
K. ChenG · #2	9	2	1-4	—	—	+8	3	2
Team		95	33-67	13-33	16-18		30	25
DNP: M. Sowah, N. Mwenentanda

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

26-54

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-67

FG %

11-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

May 11

PHX79@

GS95today

Jun 10

PHX81@

GS87

Jul 30

GS@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

158.5

Defensive · -6.5 vs avg

3.0pt· 5.8h

Moneyline

PHX+11447%

GS-13557%

10· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -2.5↗SpreadBet GS -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

158.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat PHX 95-79. J. Salaun led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 31-11 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 21 REB · 20 AST

GS 41

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST

GS 11

GSstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 50

Bench(3)

36 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 9:07 · 65-71

+8pp→ 81% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Veronica Burton assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 7:34 · 69-73

+11pp→ 38% WP

Kaila Charles · shooting foul

GS4th Quarter · 6:52 · 70-76

+9pp→ 82% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Veronica Burton assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	20	11	31	17	79
GS	17	31	18	29	95

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · GS won 2

Nogic 5

Charles 5

Thomas 5

Thornton 14

Copper 8

Burton 7

Thomas 4

Salaun 11

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

48%

26-54

49%

33-67

50%

11-22

3PT

39%

13-33

84%

16-19

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 354 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 79·GS 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 79·GS 95
Q4·16.0
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
PHX 79·GS 95
Q4·21.4
Gabby Williams blocks Kahleah Copper 's 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
PHX 79·GS 95
Q4·36.4
Kaila Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 79·GS 95
Q4·36.4
Kaila Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 79·GS 94
Q4·36.4
Kahleah Copper shooting foul
PHX 79·GS 93
Q4·37.4
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Kaila Charles steals)
·
PHX 79·GS 93
Q4·46.8
Gabby Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
· ·
PHX 79·GS 93
Q4·1:05
Noemie Brochant bad pass turnover (Veronica Burton steals)
·
PHX 79·GS 90
+0.9pp
Q4·1:11
Kaila Charles personal foul
PHX 79·GS 90
−0.7pp
Q4·1:18
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 79·GS 90
Q4·1:18
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
PHX 79·GS 89
Q4·1:18
Laeticia Amihere misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 79·GS 89
Q4·1:18
Alyssa Thomas shooting foul
PHX 79·GS 89
Q4·1:34
Noemie Brochant makes 24-foot three pointer (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 79·GS 89
Q4·1:40
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 76·GS 89
Q4·1:44
Kaila Charles misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 76·GS 89
Q4·2:03
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover
PHX 76·GS 89
Q4·2:15
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 1 of 1
PHX 76·GS 89
Q4·2:15
DeWanna Bonner shooting foul
PHX 76·GS 88
Q4·2:15
Laeticia Amihere makes driving layup
PHX 76·GS 88
+0.5pp
Q4·2:35
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
PHX 76·GS 86
Q4·2:37
Laeticia Amihere blocks DeWanna Bonner 's 4-foot driving layup
·
PHX 76·GS 86
+0.6pp
Q4·2:52
Gabby Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
· ·
PHX 76·GS 86
+3pp
Q4·3:07
Alyssa Thomas makes running layup
PHX 76·GS 83
−2pp
Q4·3:09
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 74·GS 83
Q4·3:12
Janelle Salaun misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 74·GS 83
−4pp
Q4·3:33
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 74·GS 83
Q4·3:33
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 73·GS 83
+1pp

Betting line

GS -2.5·O/U 158.5·PHX +114/GS -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Phoenix Mercury, 95–79.

GS -2.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 158.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

58.3%

59.0%

TOV%

ball control

21.4%

10.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

14.3%

23.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

29.6%

23.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
53.1%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.4%
P(GS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.16

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

GS vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 25 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.0± 9.2high
Gabby WilliamsGS
16.9± 9.0medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
13.3± 6.7high

Rebounds

Natasha MackPHX
8.3± 3.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
5.9± 2.5high
Kayla ThorntonGS
5.6± 3.1medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.5± 2.3high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.2± 3.1medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
2.9± 2.1low

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.5± 1.4medium
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 1.1high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.4± 0.6medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

PHX

league avg

43.5%

FG%

◀

44.8

40.9%

31.8%

3PT %

33.4

▶

35.8%

83.7

PPG

86.0

83.4

19.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.4

13.2

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop