PHX
1-0
GS
1-0
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
9
Pts
7
Reb
6
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
17
Pts
2
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Box score
PHX
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 22 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| Team | 43 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: P. Williams, A. Maley, S. Whitcomb | ||||||||
GS
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 21 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 12 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +26 | |
| 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +22 | |
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| Team | 54 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | ||
| DNP: M. Sowah, N. Mwenentanda | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
48
11
Ast
14
Season series
PHX@GStodayPHX@GSupcomingGS@PHXupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
158.5
Defensive · -6.5 vs avg
3.0pt· 5.8h
Moneyline
PHX+11447%GS-13557%10· 5.8h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Live · top performers so far
5:09 - 3rdRecent swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:25
Janelle Salaun · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Laeticia Amihere assists)
PHXA. Thomas
FLeading · 5:09 - 3rd · 22 min
9 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
On pace: 16 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST
GSK. Thornton
FLeading · 5:09 - 3rd · 24 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 28 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST
How it's going
GS lead PHX 54-43 (5:09 - 3rd). K. Thornton led with 17 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. GS have outscored the other side 31-11 in the 2nd quarter.
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST
GS 23
Bench(4)
8 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
GS 4
GSstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 28
Bench(3)
19 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKiana Williams · makes 27-foot three pointer
Kaitlyn Chen · misses driving floating jump shot
Noemie Brochant · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 20 | 11 | 12 | 43 |
| GS | 17 | 31 | 6 | 54 |
Shooting comparison
44%
15-34
FG
48%
21-44
36%
4-11
3PT
40%
8-20
90%
9-10
FT
80%
4-5
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
GS
Home
15-34
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-44
44
FG %
48
4-11
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-20
9-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
4-5
11
Assists
14
10
Turnovers
6
Betting line
GS -2.5·O/U 158.5·PHX +114/GS -135
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
158.5
+3.0 since open
Win probability
GS vs PHX
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · GS won 1
Q1
Nogic 5
Charles 5
Q2
Thomas 5
Thornton 14
Q3
Mack 4
Thornton 3
Play-by-play · 208 plays
Janelle Salaun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Laeticia Amihere assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 43·GS 54
+7pp
DeWanna Bonner kicked ball violation
PHX 43·GS 51
−2pp
Natasha Mack makes 6-foot layup (DeWanna Bonner assists)
·
PHX 43·GS 51
+1pp
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
PHX 41·GS 51
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Gabby Williams
· ·
PHX 41·GS 51
Kiah Stokes personal foul
PHX 41·GS 51
−3pp
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 41·GS 51
Gabby Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
PHX 41·GS 51
−0.9pp
DeWanna Bonner makes running layup (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 41·GS 51
−2pp
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 39·GS 51
Kaitlyn Chen misses 8-foot hook shot
PHX 39·GS 51
−0.9pp
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
PHX 39·GS 51
DeWanna Bonner misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHX 39·GS 51
+1pp
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 39·GS 51
Kayla Thornton misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 39·GS 51
−0.9pp
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
PHX 39·GS 51
Alyssa Thomas misses 6-foot hook shot
PHX 39·GS 51
+1pp
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
PHX 39·GS 51
−1pp
Kahleah Copper misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 39·GS 51
+1pp
Kayla Thornton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
PHX 39·GS 51
+4pp
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
PHX 39·GS 48
Jovana Nogic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
PHX 39·GS 48
−4pp
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 36·GS 48
Kaila Charles misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 36·GS 48
−0.6pp
Jovana Nogic personal foul
PHX 36·GS 48
−0.7pp
Natasha Mack makes layup (Kahleah Copper assists)
·
PHX 36·GS 48
−1pp
Kaila Charles personal foul
PHX 34·GS 48
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
PHX 34·GS 48
Veronica Burton loose ball foul
PHX 34·GS 48
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 34·GS 48
