Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 98–93 in overtime.
WSH +5.5 cashed (NY won by 5). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 25.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Pauline Astier
G · #18
18
Pts
5
Reb
7
Ast
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
20
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
NY
2-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 39 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +9 | |
| 24 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +11 | |
| 25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +12 | |
| 37 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 35 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -11 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 98 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: S. Sabally, R. Allen, S. Ionescu, M. Fauthoux | ||||||||
WSH
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 33 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 36 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 28 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 18 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 22 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
| 24 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 93 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: M. Onyenwere, C. McMahon, D. Littlepage-Buggs, Florez | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
43
19
Ast
24
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
NY98@WSH93todayWSH@NYupcomingWSH@NYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
165.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
4.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
NY-23070%WSH+19034%35· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
-1.0 since open
Total
165.5
+4.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 3:09
NYP. Astier
GGame leader · 35 min
18 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 28 min
20 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
NY beat WSH 98-93. P. Astier led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 60
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 11
WSHstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactHan Xu · shooting foul
Sonia Citron · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Han Xu · loose ball foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 24 | 31 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 98 |
| WSH | 31 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 93 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · WSH won 3
Q1
Astier 7
Austin 6
Q2
Johannes 12
Betts 8
Q3
Stewart 6
Citron 8
Q4
Gardner 5
Iriafen 5
OT
Astier 6
Iriafen 5
Shooting comparison
48%
33-69
FG
43%
34-80
33%
9-27
3PT
19%
5-26
82%
23-28
FT
69%
20-29
Play-by-play · 496 plays
End of Game
NY 98·WSH 93
End of the 1st Overtime
NY 98·WSH 93
Mystics offensive team rebound
NY 98·WSH 93
Alex Wilson misses 28-foot three point jumper
NY 98·WSH 93
−0.6pp
Alex Wilson offensive rebound
NY 98·WSH 93
Sonia Citron misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 98·WSH 93
−3pp
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 98·WSH 93
+1pp
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 97·WSH 93
−0.6pp
Lucy Olsen personal foul
NY 96·WSH 93
−4pp
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 96·WSH 93
−2pp
Mystics offensive team rebound
NY 96·WSH 92
−5pp
Sonia Citron misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 96·WSH 92
−8pp
Pauline Astier personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 96·WSH 92
+10pp
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 96·WSH 92
+4pp
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 95·WSH 92
−1pp
Sonia Citron personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
−12pp
Sonia Citron out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
−14pp
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Rori Harmon
·
NY 94·WSH 92
Mystics Full timeout
NY 94·WSH 92
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
+9pp
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 93·WSH 92
−3pp
Alex Wilson enters the game for Cassandre Prosper
·
NY 92·WSH 92
Cassandre Prosper shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 92
−19pp
Liberty Full timeout
NY 92·WSH 92
Kiki Iriafen makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 92
+12pp
Kiki Iriafen offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
+9pp
Sonia Citron misses 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
−12pp
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
NY 92·WSH 90
+3pp
Breanna Stewart misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
+7pp
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
−9pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
33-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-80
48
FG %
43
9-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-26
23-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-29
19
Assists
24
15
Turnovers
13
Betting line
NY -5.5·O/U 165.5·NY -230/WSH +190
