Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NY

2-0

9893

WSH

1-1

WNBASun, May 10FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -5.5

NY · top performer

Pauline Astier

G · #18

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Kiki Iriafen

F · #44

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 3:09

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	39	23	9-23	1-4	4-4	+9	9	4
J. JonesC · #35	24	13	3-8	1-2	6-7	+11	8	2
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	25	3	—	—	3-4	+12	2	0
M. JohannesG · #23	37	25	8-15	6-13	3-5	+10	1	2
P. AstierG · #18	35	18	6-10	0-2	6-7	-1	5	7
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
H. XuC · #21	26	4	2-5	0-2	—	-11	5	0
R. GardnerG · #7	25	9	4-5	0-1	1-1	-5	3	2
J. VanlooG · #53	13	3	1-3	1-3	—	0	1	2
Team		98	33-69	9-27	23-28		34	19
DNP: S. Sabally, R. Allen, S. Ionescu, M. Fauthoux

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. IriafenF · #44	28	20	7-13	0-1	6-7	-8	12	3
S. AustinC · #0	33	16	6-13	0-1	4-8	+2	10	4
S. CitronG · #22	36	17	4-12	0-6	9-10	-6	5	2
G. AmooreG · #8	21	7	3-8	1-4	—	-4	1	7
C. ProsperG · #18	28	8	4-9	0-1	—	-8	3	0
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	10	5	2-4	1-3	0-2	+3	2	0
L. BettsC · #51	18	7	3-7	—	1-2	-7	2	1
R. HarmonG · #3	22	3	1-3	1-3	—	-1	3	4
L. OlsenG · #33	5	5	2-2	1-1	—	+4	0	1
A. WilsonG · #4	24	5	2-9	1-6	—	0	4	2
Team		93	34-80	5-26	20-29		42	24
DNP: M. Onyenwere, C. McMahon, D. Littlepage-Buggs, A. Florez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

33-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-80

FG %

9-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-26

23-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY wins series 2-1

May 10

NY98@

WSH93today

Jun 14

WSH64@

NY86

Jun 19

WSH86@

NY83

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

4.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

NY-23070%

WSH+19034%

35· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-1.0 since open

Total

165.5

+4.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat WSH 98-93. P. Astier led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 11

WSHstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 3:09 · 81-80

+21pp→ 53% WP

Han Xu · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 2:32 · 81-81

+20pp→ 52% WP

Sonia Citron · misses 24-foot three point jumper

WSHOT · 1:22 · 92-88

+21pp→ 33% WP

Han Xu · loose ball foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
NY	24	31	17	13	13	98
WSH	31	17	21	16	8	93

Period scoring

NY won 2 · WSH won 3

Astier 7

Austin 6

Johannes 12

Betts 8

Stewart 6

Citron 8

Gardner 5

Iriafen 5

Astier 6

Iriafen 5

WSH

Shooting comparison

WSH

48%

33-69

43%

34-80

33%

9-27

3PT

19%

5-26

82%

23-28

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
NY 98·WSH 93
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
NY 98·WSH 93
OT·0.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
NY 98·WSH 93
OT·0.1
Alex Wilson misses 28-foot three point jumper
NY 98·WSH 93
−0.6pp
OT·3.2
Alex Wilson offensive rebound
NY 98·WSH 93
OT·3.2
Sonia Citron misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 98·WSH 93
−3pp
OT·12.3
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 98·WSH 93
+1pp
OT·12.3
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 97·WSH 93
−0.6pp
OT·12.3
Lucy Olsen personal foul
NY 96·WSH 93
−4pp
OT·13.5
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 96·WSH 93
−2pp
OT·13.5
Mystics offensive team rebound
NY 96·WSH 92
−5pp
OT·13.5
Sonia Citron misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 96·WSH 92
−8pp
OT·13.5
Pauline Astier personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 96·WSH 92
+10pp
OT·19.3
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 96·WSH 92
+4pp
OT·19.3
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 95·WSH 92
−1pp
OT·19.3
Sonia Citron personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
−12pp
OT·24.0
Sonia Citron out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
−14pp
OT·29.6
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Rori Harmon
·
NY 94·WSH 92
OT·29.6
Mystics Full timeout
NY 94·WSH 92
OT·29.6
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 94·WSH 92
+9pp
OT·29.6
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 93·WSH 92
−3pp
OT·29.6
Alex Wilson enters the game for Cassandre Prosper
·
NY 92·WSH 92
OT·29.6
Cassandre Prosper shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 92
−19pp
OT·33.5
Liberty Full timeout
NY 92·WSH 92
OT·33.5
Kiki Iriafen makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 92
+12pp
OT·33.5
Kiki Iriafen offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
+9pp
OT·34.3
Sonia Citron misses 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
−12pp
OT·48.4
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
NY 92·WSH 90
+3pp
OT·50.4
Breanna Stewart misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
+7pp
OT·1:12
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 92·WSH 90
−9pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 165.5·NY -230/WSH +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 98–93 in overtime.

WSH +5.5 cashed (NY won by 5). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

eFG%

shooting

54.3%

45.6%

TOV%

ball control

15.6%

12.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.8%

42.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

33.3%

25.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

21.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
39.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
39.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
35.5%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.42

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+230

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

29.0%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 10 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.8± 6.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
17.6± 7.5medium
Jonquel JonesNY
14.7± 5.6medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.1± 4.3medium
Shakira AustinWSH
9.1± 3.8medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.0high

Assists

Pauline AstierNY
4.0± 1.9medium
Sonia CitronWSH
4.0± 2.6medium
Georgia AmooreWSH
3.9± 2.9medium

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 2.2high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.3± 1.1medium
Shakira AustinWSH
1.1± 1.1medium

Steals

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.4high
Sonia CitronWSH
1.3± 1.6medium
Rori HarmonWSH
1.0± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

WSH

46.2%

FG%

◀

44.7

45.0%

35.2%

3PT %

◀

33.4

29.9%

88.9

PPG

◀

86.0

82.3

21.0

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.9

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop