Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
5
projections · 5 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 105–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LV -1.5 cashed (won by 27). Total cleared the 178.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
20
Pts
5
Reb
9
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
27
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
LV
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +14 | |
| 30 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +19 | |
| 32 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +11 | |
| 31 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +25 | |
| 16 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +16 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8 | |
| 26 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 20 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +28 | |
| Team | 105 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 10 | 14 | ||
LA
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 27 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 35 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | |
| 32 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24 | |
| 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -19 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -21 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 78 | 32 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 19 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
62
FG %
37
28
Ast
11
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
LV105@LA78todayLA@LVupcomingLV@LAupcomingLA@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -1.5
Between — and 5
2.0pt· 5.8h
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 5.8h
Moneyline
LV-12556%LA+10549%50· 5.8h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
-2.0 since open
Total
178.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 58.0
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 31 min
20 PTS · 5 REB · 9 AST
LAK. Plum
GGame leader · 35 min
27 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
LV beat LA 105-78. J. Young led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. LV outscored the other side 29-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 20 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(5)
30 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 31
LAstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST
GS 42
Bench(7)
7 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
Nneka Ogwumike · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ariel Atkins assists)
Chelsea Gray · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 29 | 13 | 33 | 30 | 105 |
| LA | 14 | 27 | 18 | 19 | 78 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · LA won 1
Q1
Wilson 8
Plum 7
Q2
Carter 4
Ogwumike 12
Q3
Young 7
Hamby 5
Q4
Carter 9
Plum 12
Shooting comparison
62%
43-69
FG
37%
29-78
35%
7-20
3PT
29%
9-31
71%
12-17
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 406 plays
End of Game
LV 105·LA 78
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 105·LA 78
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 105·LA 78
Chennedy Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 105·LA 78
Emma Cannon bad pass turnover (Chennedy Carter steals)
·
LV 105·LA 78
Chennedy Carter out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 105·LA 78
Emma Cannon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chance Gray assists)
· ·
LV 105·LA 78
Chance Gray defensive rebound
·
LV 105·LA 75
Kierstan Bell misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 105·LA 75
Ta'Niya Latson makes driving layup
LV 105·LA 75
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus makes 1-foot layup (Kierstan Bell assists)
· ·
LV 105·LA 73
Emma Cannon offensive foul turnover
LV 103·LA 73
Emma Cannon offensive foul
LV 103·LA 73
Stephanie Talbot makes running layup (Cheyenne Parker-Tyus assists)
· ·
LV 103·LA 73
Ta'Niya Latson bad pass turnover (Cheyenne Parker-Tyus steals)
· ·
LV 101·LA 73
Sparks offensive team rebound
LV 101·LA 73
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus blocks Chance Gray 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
LV 101·LA 73
Sparks offensive team rebound
LV 101·LA 73
Brianna Turner blocks Jihyun Park 's 8-foot hook shot
·
LV 101·LA 73
Emma Cannon enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 101·LA 73
Chennedy Carter makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 101·LA 73
Emma Cannon enters the game for
LV 100·LA 73
Jihyun Park enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
LV 100·LA 73
Sania Feagin shooting foul
LV 100·LA 73
Chennedy Carter makes driving layup
LV 100·LA 73
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
LV 98·LA 73
Kierstan Bell blocks Rae Burrell 's 2-foot driving layup
·
LV 98·LA 73
Chennedy Carter makes driving layup
LV 98·LA 73
Rae Burrell makes 2-foot two point shot
LV 96·LA 73
Chennedy Carter makes two point shot
LV 96·LA 71
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
LA
Home
43-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-78
62
FG %
37
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
28
Assists
11
14
Turnovers
19
Betting line
LV -1.5·O/U 178.5·LV -125/LA +105
