LV
1-1
LA
0-1
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
20
Pts
5
Reb
9
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
27
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 58.0
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | — | +5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 16 | 12 | 5-5 | — | 2-4 | +14 | 6 | 2 | |
| 30 | 19 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 5-6 | +19 | 4 | 3 | |
| 32 | 16 | 6-10 | 4-5 | — | +11 | 3 | 5 | |
| 31 | 20 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +25 | 5 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | +16 | 6 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 26 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 20 | 22 | 9-13 | 1-3 | 3-5 | +28 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 105 | 43-69 | 7-20 | 12-17 | 31 | 28 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 19 | 7-15 | 3-5 | 2-2 | -15 | 10 | 2 | |
| 27 | 12 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 4-8 | -16 | 5 | 1 | |
| 35 | 27 | 10-18 | 4-8 | 3-4 | -25 | 4 | 2 | |
| 32 | 8 | 3-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | -6 | 4 | 3 | |
| 28 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | -24 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -19 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1-11 | 0-6 | — | -21 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 78 | 29-78 | 9-31 | 11-16 | 32 | 11 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
62
FG %
37
28
Ast
11
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
LA
Home
43-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-78
62
FG %
37
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
6
OR
15
25
DR
17
28
Assists
11
14
Turnovers
19
Season series
LV leads series 2-1
LV105@LA78todayLA101@LV95LV79@LA69LA@LVupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -1.5
Between — and 5
2.0pt· 5.8h
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 5.8h
Moneyline
LV-12556%LA+10549%50· 5.8h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
-2.0 since open
Total
178.5
+2.0 since open
How it ended
LV beat LA 105-78. J. Young led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. LV outscored the other side 29-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 20 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(5)
30 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 31
LAstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST
GS 42
Bench(7)
7 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
Nneka Ogwumike · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ariel Atkins assists)
Chelsea Gray · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jewell Loyd assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 29 | 13 | 33 | 30 | 105 |
| LA | 14 | 27 | 18 | 19 | 78 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · LA won 1
Q1
Wilson 8
Plum 7
Q2
Carter 4
Ogwumike 12
Q3
Young 7
Hamby 5
Q4
Carter 9
Plum 12
Shooting comparison
62%
43-69
FG
37%
29-78
35%
7-20
3PT
29%
9-31
71%
12-17
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 406 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·0.0
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·0.0
Chennedy Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·1.9
Emma Cannon bad pass turnover (Chennedy Carter steals)
·
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·15.1
Chennedy Carter out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·35.3
Emma Cannon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chance Gray assists)
· ·
LV 105·LA 78
- Q4·40.0
Chance Gray defensive rebound
·
LV 105·LA 75
- Q4·44.0
Kierstan Bell misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 105·LA 75
- Q4·59.3
Ta'Niya Latson makes driving layup
LV 105·LA 75
- Q4·1:06
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus makes 1-foot layup (Kierstan Bell assists)
· ·
LV 105·LA 73
- Q4·1:15
Emma Cannon offensive foul turnover
LV 103·LA 73
- Q4·1:15
Emma Cannon offensive foul
LV 103·LA 73
- Q4·1:24
Stephanie Talbot makes running layup (Cheyenne Parker-Tyus assists)
· ·
LV 103·LA 73
- Q4·1:28
Ta'Niya Latson bad pass turnover (Cheyenne Parker-Tyus steals)
· ·
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:30
Sparks offensive team rebound
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:31
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus blocks Chance Gray 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:34
Sparks offensive team rebound
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:35
Brianna Turner blocks Jihyun Park 's 8-foot hook shot
·
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Emma Cannon enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Chennedy Carter makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 101·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Emma Cannon enters the game for
LV 100·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Jihyun Park enters the game for Rae Burrell
·
LV 100·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Sania Feagin shooting foul
LV 100·LA 73
- Q4·1:52
Chennedy Carter makes driving layup
LV 100·LA 73
- Q4·2:01
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
LV 98·LA 73
- Q4·2:04
Kierstan Bell blocks Rae Burrell 's 2-foot driving layup
·
LV 98·LA 73
- Q4·2:16
Chennedy Carter makes driving layup
LV 98·LA 73
- Q4·2:31
Rae Burrell makes 2-foot two point shot
LV 96·LA 73
- Q4·2:46
Chennedy Carter makes two point shot
LV 96·LA 71
Betting line
LV -1.5·O/U 178.5·LV -125/LA +105
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 105–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LV -1.5 cashed (won by 27). Total cleared the 178.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Four factors · this game
Who won the possession battle
Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.
LVLAeFG%
shooting
TOV%
ball control
OREB%
offensive glass
FT rate
free throws / FGA
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
NaLyssa SmithLV · FeFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · CUSG%.32399+- Kelsey PlumLA · GTS%.68699
- Jackie YoungLV · GAST/TO3.396
Nneka OgwumikeLA · FDRB%.25989
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
17.8%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
34.6%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
32.7%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
36.4%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.52 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.3± 7.4medium
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Jackie YoungLV18.0± 7.4medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.8± 4.2medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Dearica HambyLA7.8± 2.5medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.4± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV7.1± 2.4medium
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 2.0medium
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.6medium
- A'ja WilsonLV1.7± 1.8medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
LA
48.8%
FG%
44.7
46.1%
35.9%
3PT %
33.4
31.3%
89.2
PPG
86.0
88.4
23.3
Assists / G
18.0
20.3
12.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6