WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LV

SEA

23-21

7374

30-14

WNBAThu, Sep 18FinalSeriestied 2-2

SEA · top performer

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #3

13.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

32.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 4.4

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #3	32	16	4-13	1-3	7-8	-4	9	2
G. WilliamsF · #5	28	7	3-6	1-2	—	+6	6	2
E. MagbegorF · #13	26	9	4-7	0-1	1-3	-4	5	2
S. DigginsG · #4	36	13	4-13	3-5	2-2	-5	4	6
B. SykesG · #20	23	9	4-5	—	1-1	-4	2	0
Bench
D. MalongaC · #14	22	3	1-5	—	1-2	+2	5	0
E. WheelerG · #17	33	16	6-16	2-7	2-2	+4	2	5
Team		73	26-65	7-18	14-18		33	17
DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, T. Mitchell, L. Brown, Z. Cooke

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SmithF · #3	18	2	1-3	0-1	—	+5	4	2
K. BellF · #1	20	0	0-3	0-3	—	+7	7	1
A. WilsonC · #22	37	38	14-26	0-1	10-11	-4	5	3
C. GrayG · #12	37	12	5-8	2-3	—	+3	2	8
J. YoungG · #0	34	14	6-12	1-2	1-2	+3	2	1
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	10	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-4	2	1
K. StokesC · #41	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	29	4	2-4	—	—	+1	5	2
D. EvansG · #11	14	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-6	0	2
Team		74	28-61	3-12	15-17		27	20
DNP: Gustafson, A. Nye

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

Home

26-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-61

FG %

7-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-12

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LV wins series 2-1

Sep 15

SEA77@

LV102

Sep 17

LV83@

SEA86

Sep 19

SEA73@

LV74today

How it ended

LV beat SEA 74-73. A. Wilson led the way with 38 points and 5 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 19-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 45

Bench(2)

19 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 6

LVstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

8 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 2:20 · 64-66

+19pp→ 52% WP

Jewell Loyd · shooting foul

LV4th Quarter · 1:33 · 68-68

+16pp→ 69% WP

Dominique Malonga · shooting foul

LV4th Quarter · 4.4 · 73-74

+31pp→ 86% WP

Erica Wheeler · misses 14-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	19	7	22	25	73
LV	14	19	19	22	74

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · LV won 1

Diggins 5

Wilson 6

Wheeler 2

Wilson 7

Diggins 5

Wilson 14

Ogwumike 9

Wilson 11

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

40%

26-65

46%

28-61

39%

7-18

3PT

25%

3-12

78%

14-18

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 372 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 73·LV 74
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+7pp
Q4·1.5
Skylar Diggins offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+7pp
Q4·4.4
Erica Wheeler misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+31pp
Q4·12.4
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 73·LV 74
Q4·12.4
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
SEA 73·LV 74
Q4·12.4
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
SEA 73·LV 74
Q4·12.4
Storm Full timeout
SEA 73·LV 74
Q4·12.4
Jackie Young makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+11pp
Q4·12.4
Jackie Young offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
+12pp
Q4·13.5
A'ja Wilson misses 12-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
−13pp
Q4·18.7
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 73·LV 72
Q4·18.7
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
SEA 73·LV 72
Q4·18.7
Aces Full timeout
SEA 73·LV 72
Q4·19.3
Erica Wheeler makes 12-foot running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
−9pp
Q4·22.8
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 71·LV 72
−4pp
Q4·24.7
A'ja Wilson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 71·LV 72
−8pp
Q4·45.4
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
SEA 71·LV 72
+3pp
Q4·47.5
Skylar Diggins misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 71·LV 72
+10pp
Q4·1:03
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 71·LV 72
Q4·1:03
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
SEA 71·LV 72
Q4·1:03
Storm Full timeout
SEA 71·LV 72
Q4·1:03
A'ja Wilson makes layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 71·LV 72
+6pp
Q4·1:14
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 71·LV 70
Q4·1:14
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
SEA 71·LV 70
Q4·1:14
Aces Full timeout
SEA 71·LV 70
Q4·1:15
Skylar Diggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 71·LV 70
−15pp
Q4·1:18
Gabby Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
−9pp
Q4·1:20
Nneka Ogwumike misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
+9pp
Q4·1:33
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
−9pp

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Seattle Storm, 74–73. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

SEA26/65 · 40%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim2/4

50%

In the paint14/33

42%

Mid-range3/10

30%

Top-of-arc 36/13

46%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/1

LV28/61 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/11

73%

In the paint13/29

45%

Mid-range4/9

44%

Top-of-arc 33/8

38%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/2

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

45.4%

48.4%

TOV%

ball control

18.0%

16.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.1%

14.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

21.5%

24.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

SEA26/65 · 40%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim2/4

50%

In the paint14/33

42%

Mid-range3/10

30%

Top-of-arc 36/13

46%

Left corner 31/3

33%

Right corner 30/1

LV28/61 · 46%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim8/11

73%

In the paint13/29

45%

Mid-range4/9

44%

Top-of-arc 33/8

38%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/2

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.8%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
73.9%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.2%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.7%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.1high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high
Jewell LoydLV
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Fever87Dream85Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop