Sep 15, 25sim 98
1477
17(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1LV
SEA
23-21
7374
LV
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Seattle Storm, 74–73. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
13.0Game score
16
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
32.0Game score
38
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA23-21
7374
LV30-14
SEA23-21LV30-14
SEA
23-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 28 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 36 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | |
| 33 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| Team | 73 | 33 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 16 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, T. Mitchell, L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
LV
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 20 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 37 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -4 | |
| 37 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +3 | |
| 34 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 29 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 74 | 27 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 13 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson, A. Nye | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
46
17
Ast
20
Playoff series
LV wins series 2-1
Sep 15SEA77@LV102
SEA77@LV102Sep 17LV83@SEA86
LV83@SEA86Sep 19SEA73@LV74today
SEA73@LV74todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 4.4
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 32 min
16 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
38 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat SEA 74-73. A. Wilson led the way with 38 points and 5 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 19-7 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST
GS 45
Bench(2)
19 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 6
LVstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
8 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 2:20 · 64-66
+19pp→ 52% WP
Jewell Loyd · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 1:33 · 68-68
+16pp→ 69% WP
Dominique Malonga · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 4.4 · 73-74
+31pp→ 86% WP
Erica Wheeler · misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 19 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 73 |
| LV | 14 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 74 |
Period scoring
SEA won 3 · LV won 1
19
14
Q1
Diggins 5
Wilson 6
7
19
Q2
Wheeler 2
Wilson 7
22
19
Q3
Diggins 5
Wilson 14
25
22
Q4
Ogwumike 9
Wilson 11
SEA
LV
Shooting comparison
SEA
LV
40%
26-65
FG
46%
28-61
39%
7-18
3PT
25%
3-12
78%
14-18
FT
88%
15-17
Play-by-play · 372 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 73·LV 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+7pp
- Q4·1.5
Skylar Diggins offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+7pp
- Q4·4.4
Erica Wheeler misses 14-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+31pp
- Q4·12.4
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 73·LV 74
- Q4·12.4
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
SEA 73·LV 74
- Q4·12.4
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Kierstan Bell
·
SEA 73·LV 74
- Q4·12.4
Storm Full timeout
SEA 73·LV 74
- Q4·12.4
Jackie Young makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 74
+11pp
- Q4·12.4
Jackie Young offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
+12pp
- Q4·13.5
A'ja Wilson misses 12-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
−13pp
- Q4·18.7
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 73·LV 72
- Q4·18.7
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
SEA 73·LV 72
- Q4·18.7
Aces Full timeout
SEA 73·LV 72
- Q4·19.3
Erica Wheeler makes 12-foot running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·LV 72
−9pp
- Q4·22.8
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 71·LV 72
−4pp
- Q4·24.7
A'ja Wilson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 71·LV 72
−8pp
- Q4·45.4
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
SEA 71·LV 72
+3pp
- Q4·47.5
Skylar Diggins misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
SEA 71·LV 72
+10pp
- Q4·1:03
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 71·LV 72
- Q4·1:03
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
SEA 71·LV 72
- Q4·1:03
Storm Full timeout
SEA 71·LV 72
- Q4·1:03
A'ja Wilson makes layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 71·LV 72
+6pp
- Q4·1:14
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 71·LV 70
- Q4·1:14
Brittney Sykes enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
SEA 71·LV 70
- Q4·1:14
Aces Full timeout
SEA 71·LV 70
- Q4·1:15
Skylar Diggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SEA 71·LV 70
−15pp
- Q4·1:18
Gabby Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
−9pp
- Q4·1:20
Nneka Ogwumike misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
+9pp
- Q4·1:33
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SEA 68·LV 70
−9pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
26-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-61
40
FG %
46
7-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-12
14-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-17
17
Assists
20
16
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.0± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
LV
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
34.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.6