Sep 14, 25sim 96
568
20(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2IND
IND
24-20
8785
ATL
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 87–85. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
15.9Game score
14
Pts
12
Reb
6
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
14.7Game score
19
Pts
12
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND24-20
8785
ATL30-14
IND24-20ATL30-14
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 34 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 28 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 35 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 32 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 87 | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 6 | ||
| DNP: B. Hall | ||||||||
ATL
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 40 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 33 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6 | |
| 33 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | |
| 39 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 85 | 39 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, S. Kone, S. Walker-Kimbrough | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
50
24
Ast
21
Playoff series
IND wins series 2-1
Sep 14IND68@ATL80
IND68@ATL80Sep 16ATL60@IND77
ATL60@IND77Sep 18IND87@ATL85today
IND87@ATL85todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 7.4
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 34 min
14 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 33 min
19 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
IND beat ATL 87-85. A. Boston led with 14 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 29-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 10
ATLstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 35 REB · 19 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
11 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL4th Quarter · 3:25 · 78-80
+17pp→ 68% WP
Shey Peddy · misses driving floating jump shot
IND4th Quarter · 7.4 · 86-85
+22pp→ 67% WP
Aliyah Boston · makes layup (Odyssey Sims assists)
IND4th Quarter · 4.8 · 86-85
+20pp→ 87% WP
Rhyne Howard · bad pass (Lexie Hull steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 29 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 87 |
| ATL | 27 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 85 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · ATL won 1
29
27
Q1
Mitchell 11
Gray 6
20
29
Q2
Mitchell 8
Canada 9
20
17
Q3
Howard 6
Gray 5
18
12
Q4
Boston 6
Gray 4
IND
ATL
Shooting comparison
IND
ATL
42%
32-77
FG
50%
37-74
27%
6-22
3PT
26%
6-23
71%
17-24
FT
45%
5-11
Play-by-play · 414 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 87·ATL 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 87·ATL 85
- Q4·0.1
Dream offensive team rebound
IND 87·ATL 85
−1pp
- Q4·0.9
Brionna Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 87·ATL 85
−1pp
- Q4·1.2
Dream timeout
IND 87·ATL 85
- Q4·1.2
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 87·ATL 85
−0.6pp
- Q4·1.2
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 86·ATL 85
+1pp
- Q4·1.2
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 86·ATL 85
+0.8pp
- Q4·1.2
Naz Hillmon personal take foulBIG MOMENT
IND 86·ATL 85
−12pp
- Q4·4.8
Rhyne Howard bad pass (Lexie Hull steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 86·ATL 85
−20pp
- Q4·7.4
Dream Full timeout
IND 86·ATL 85
- Q4·7.4
Dream Full timeout
IND 86·ATL 85
- Q4·7.4
Aliyah Boston makes layup (Odyssey Sims assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 86·ATL 85
−22pp
- Q4·25.4
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 84·ATL 85
−3pp
- Q4·28.8
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
IND 84·ATL 85
−9pp
- Q4·43.1
Lexie Hull makes driving layup (Brianna Turner assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 84·ATL 85
−6pp
- Q4·1:05
Fever Full timeout
IND 82·ATL 85
- Q4·1:05
Brionna Jones out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
−9pp
- Q4·1:16
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
IND 82·ATL 85
+3pp
- Q4·1:20
Aliyah Boston misses 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
+7pp
- Q4·1:37
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Shey Peddy
·
IND 82·ATL 85
- Q4·1:37
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
−8pp
- Q4·1:37
Dream offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
+6pp
- Q4·1:38
Allisha Gray misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
IND 82·ATL 85
−4pp
- Q4·2:05
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 82·ATL 85
−6pp
- Q4·2:32
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordin Canada assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 80·ATL 85
+14pp
- Q4·2:35
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
IND 80·ATL 82
+2pp
- Q4·2:38
Shey Peddy misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 82
+6pp
- Q4·3:03
Brionna Jones makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 82
+8pp
- Q4·3:06
Brionna Jones offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 80
+6pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
32-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-74
42
FG %
50
6-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-23
17-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-11
24
Assists
21
6
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
ATL
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8