WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2IND

IND

24-20

8785

ATL

30-14

WNBAThu, Sep 18FinalSeriestied 2-2

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

14.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 7.4

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #6	25	12	6-12	0-2	—	-3	6	3
A. BostonC · #7	34	14	6-11	0-1	2-6	+2	12	6
O. SimsG · #1	28	16	5-15	1-4	5-7	-4	2	8
K. MitchellG · #0	35	24	7-16	3-6	7-7	+6	2	1
L. HullG · #10	32	10	3-7	1-5	3-4	0	2	2
Bench
B. TurnerF · #11	18	2	1-1	—	—	0	5	2
M. TimpsonF · #21	4	2	1-3	—	—	+5	5	0
S. PeddyG · #5	11	3	1-6	1-3	—	+1	0	1
A. PowersG · #23	15	4	2-6	0-1	—	+3	0	1
Team		87	32-77	6-22	17-24		34	24
DNP: B. Hall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. JonesF · #24	32	12	5-8	1-2	1-2	-3	7	4
N. HillmonF · #0	40	9	3-8	2-5	1-2	-2	10	1
A. GrayG · #15	33	19	9-15	1-3	—	+6	12	1
J. CanadaG · #3	33	18	8-14	0-2	2-5	+3	3	10
R. HowardG · #10	39	16	7-18	2-8	0-1	-4	3	3
Bench
N. CoffeyF · #12	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
B. GrinerC · #42	8	5	2-4	—	1-1	+1	0	1
M. CaldwellG · #33	5	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	9	6	3-7	0-3	—	-7	3	1
Team		85	37-74	6-23	5-11		39	21
DNP: T. Thierry, S. Kone, S. Walker-Kimbrough

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

32-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-74

FG %

6-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-23

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

5-11

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

IND wins series 2-1

Sep 14

IND68@

ATL80

Sep 16

ATL60@

IND77

Sep 18

IND87@

ATL85today

How it ended

IND beat ATL 87-85. A. Boston led with 14 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 29-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 10

ATLstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 35 REB · 19 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 3:25 · 78-80

+17pp→ 68% WP

Shey Peddy · misses driving floating jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 7.4 · 86-85

+22pp→ 67% WP

Aliyah Boston · makes layup (Odyssey Sims assists)

IND4th Quarter · 4.8 · 86-85

+20pp→ 87% WP

Rhyne Howard · bad pass (Lexie Hull steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	29	20	20	18	87
ATL	27	29	17	12	85

Period scoring

IND won 3 · ATL won 1

Mitchell 11

Gray 6

Mitchell 8

Canada 9

Howard 6

Gray 5

Boston 6

Gray 4

IND

ATL

Shooting comparison

IND

ATL

42%

32-77

50%

37-74

27%

6-22

3PT

26%

6-23

71%

17-24

45%

5-11

Play-by-play · 414 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 87·ATL 85
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 87·ATL 85
Q4·0.1
Dream offensive team rebound
IND 87·ATL 85
−1pp
Q4·0.9
Brionna Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 87·ATL 85
−1pp
Q4·1.2
Dream timeout
IND 87·ATL 85
Q4·1.2
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 87·ATL 85
−0.6pp
Q4·1.2
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 86·ATL 85
+1pp
Q4·1.2
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 86·ATL 85
+0.8pp
Q4·1.2
Naz Hillmon personal take foulBIG MOMENT
IND 86·ATL 85
−12pp
Q4·4.8
Rhyne Howard bad pass (Lexie Hull steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 86·ATL 85
−20pp
Q4·7.4
Dream Full timeout
IND 86·ATL 85
Q4·7.4
Dream Full timeout
IND 86·ATL 85
Q4·7.4
Aliyah Boston makes layup (Odyssey Sims assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 86·ATL 85
−22pp
Q4·25.4
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 84·ATL 85
−3pp
Q4·28.8
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
IND 84·ATL 85
−9pp
Q4·43.1
Lexie Hull makes driving layup (Brianna Turner assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 84·ATL 85
−6pp
Q4·1:05
Fever Full timeout
IND 82·ATL 85
Q4·1:05
Brionna Jones out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
−9pp
Q4·1:16
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
IND 82·ATL 85
+3pp
Q4·1:20
Aliyah Boston misses 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
+7pp
Q4·1:37
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Shey Peddy
·
IND 82·ATL 85
Q4·1:37
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
−8pp
Q4·1:37
Dream offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 82·ATL 85
+6pp
Q4·1:38
Allisha Gray misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
IND 82·ATL 85
−4pp
Q4·2:05
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 82·ATL 85
−6pp
Q4·2:32
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordin Canada assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 80·ATL 85
+14pp
Q4·2:35
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
IND 80·ATL 82
+2pp
Q4·2:38
Shey Peddy misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 82
+6pp
Q4·3:03
Brionna Jones makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 82
+8pp
Q4·3:06
Brionna Jones offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 80
+6pp

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 87–85. Decided by 2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND32/77 · 42%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim17/32

53%

In the paint4/10

40%

Mid-range5/12

42%

Top-of-arc 36/19

32%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/3

ATL37/74 · 50%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim23/30

77%

In the paint5/12

42%

Mid-range3/9

33%

Top-of-arc 35/19

26%

Left corner 31/1

100%

Right corner 30/2

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

ATL

eFG%

shooting

45.5%

54.1%

TOV%

ball control

6.4%

14.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.6%

23.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

22.1%

6.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND32/77 · 42%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim17/32

53%

In the paint4/10

40%

Mid-range5/12

42%

Top-of-arc 36/19

32%

Left corner 30/1

Right corner 30/3

ATL37/74 · 50%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim23/30

77%

In the paint5/12

42%

Mid-range3/9

33%

Top-of-arc 35/19

26%

Left corner 31/1

100%

Right corner 30/2

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
68.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.4± 1.3high

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Storm73Aces74Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop