Sep 1, 25sim 97
563
129689(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8GS
NY
24-17
5866
GS
22-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off New York Liberty, 66–58.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Natasha Cloud
G · #9
14.8Game score
19
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
GS · top performer
Temi Fagbenle
C · #14
14.9Game score
16
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY24-17
5866
GS22-18
NY24-17GS22-18
NY
24-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -14 | |
| 36 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -12 | |
| 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16 | |
| 23 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 22 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 58 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Talbot, N. Sabally | ||||||||
GS
22-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 38 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 24 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 31 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 33 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +16 | |
| 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 15 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 16 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
| Team | 66 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
32
FG %
37
15
Ast
15
Season series
NY wins series 3-1
May 27GS67@NY95
GS67@NY95May 29GS77@NY82
GS77@NY82Jun 26NY81@GS78
NY81@GS78Sep 3NY58@GS66today
NY58@GS66todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:56
NYN. Cloud
GGame leader · 36 min
19 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GST. Fagbenle
CGame leader · 38 min
16 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
GS beat NY 66-58. T. Fagbenle led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 26-8 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST
GS 30
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 8
GSstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 29 REB · 12 AST
GS 34
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 6:09 · 21-26
+7pp→ 51% WP
Kate Martin · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS2nd Quarter · 4:56 · 23-30
+9pp→ 68% WP
Breanna Stewart · shooting foul
GS2nd Quarter · 3:44 · 23-35
+7pp→ 77% WP
Kate Martin · makes 29-foot three pointer (Veronica Burton assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 18 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 58 |
| GS | 14 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 66 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · GS won 1
18
14
Q1
Cloud 9
Fagbenle 6
8
26
Q2
Johannes 3
Martin 11
18
16
Q3
Stewart 10
Salaun 6
14
10
Q4
Stewart 7
Fagbenle 5
NY
GS
Shooting comparison
NY
GS
32%
18-57
FG
37%
22-59
26%
7-27
3PT
27%
7-26
79%
15-19
FT
75%
15-20
Play-by-play · 370 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 58·GS 66
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 58·GS 66
- Q4·16.3
Leonie Fiebich makes 25-foot three point jumper (Emma Meesseman assists)
·
NY 58·GS 66
- Q4·31.5
Marine Johannes defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·35.6
Monique Billings misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·54.0
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·57.0
Marine Johannes misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·59.6
Marine Johannes enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·59.6
Emma Meesseman enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·59.6
Monique Billings enters the game for Iliana Rupert
·
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·59.6
Liberty Full timeout
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·59.7
Temi Fagbenle makes layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
NY 55·GS 66
- Q4·1:12
Veronica Burton offensive rebound
NY 55·GS 64
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:15
Iliana Rupert misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 55·GS 64
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:32
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 64
- Q4·1:35
Leonie Fiebich misses 25-foot three point shot
NY 55·GS 64
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:42
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 64
- Q4·1:45
Veronica Burton misses 25-foot three point shot
NY 55·GS 64
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:04
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 64
- Q4·2:07
Jonquel Jones misses 25-foot three point shot
NY 55·GS 64
+1pp
- Q4·2:13
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 55·GS 64
- Q4·2:16
Carla Leite misses 8-foot jumper
NY 55·GS 64
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:34
Iliana Rupert enters the game for Monique Billings
·
NY 55·GS 64
- Q4·2:34
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 55·GS 64
+1pp
- Q4·2:34
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 54·GS 64
−2pp
- Q4·2:34
(02:34) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Liberty] retain their timeout
NY 53·GS 64
−0.6pp
- Q4·2:34
Liberty Coach's Challenge
NY 53·GS 64
+2pp
- Q4·2:34
Veronica Burton shooting foul
NY 53·GS 64
−2pp
- Q4·2:37
Rebekah Gardner defensive rebound
NY 53·GS 64
- Q4·2:41
Monique Billings misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 53·GS 64
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
GS
Home
18-57
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
22-59
32
FG %
37
7-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-26
15-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-20
15
Assists
15
13
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
GS
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
35.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1