Aug 3, 25sim 97
578
14(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7PHX
PHX
21-13
9891
GS
18-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 98–91.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Natasha Mack
F · #4
15.5Game score
14
Pts
7
Reb
0
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
28.1Game score
24
Pts
2
Reb
14
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX21-13
9891
GS18-17
PHX21-13GS18-17
PHX
21-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +11 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 18 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4 | |
| 31 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 24 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 32 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 98 | 40 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams | ||||||||
GS
18-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 35 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 34 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 32 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 91 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 3 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
42
22
Ast
20
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
Jun 6GS77@PHX86
GS77@PHX86Jul 15PHX78@GS77
PHX78@GS77Aug 20PHX98@GS91today
PHX98@GS91todayAug 23GS72@PHX81
GS72@PHX81Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 7:14
PHXN. Mack
FGame leader · 18 min
14 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 34 min
24 PTS · 2 REB · 14 AST
How it ended
PHX beat GS 98-91. N. Mack led with 14 PTS, 7 REB, 0 AST. PHX outscored the other side 30-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 17
GSstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 16 REB · 19 AST
GS 60
Bench(3)
18 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 8:39 · 76-77
+12pp→ 42% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 25-foot three pointer
PHX4th Quarter · 7:27 · 80-79
+12pp→ 66% WP
Carla Leite · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 7:14 · 81-79
+18pp→ 42% WP
Carla Leite · enters the game for Kaila Charles
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 28 | 19 | 21 | 30 | 98 |
| GS | 31 | 28 | 14 | 18 | 91 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · GS won 2
28
31
Q1
Copper 8
Salaun 11
19
28
Q2
Copper 8
Burton 13
21
14
Q3
Copper 6
Whitcomb 11
30
18
Q4
Bonner 7
Amihere 7
PHX
GS
Shooting comparison
PHX
GS
49%
34-69
FG
42%
32-77
35%
11-31
3PT
34%
12-35
83%
19-23
FT
88%
15-17
Play-by-play · 391 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 98·GS 91
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 98·GS 91
- Q4·11.0
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 98·GS 91
- Q4·11.0
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 98·GS 90
- Q4·11.0
Kahleah Copper personal foul
PHX 98·GS 89
- Q4·13.9
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 98·GS 89
- Q4·13.9
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 97·GS 89
- Q4·13.9
Veronica Burton personal take foul
PHX 96·GS 89
- Q4·13.9
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
PHX 96·GS 89
- Q4·18.0
Janelle Salaun misses 30-foot three point jumper
PHX 96·GS 89
−0.6pp
- Q4·19.6
Golden State Valkyries timeout
PHX 96·GS 89
- Q4·19.6
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
PHX 96·GS 89
- Q4·21.6
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 96·GS 89
+1pp
- Q4·21.6
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 96·GS 89
- Q4·21.6
Temi Fagbenle personal take foul
PHX 95·GS 89
- Q4·22.9
Veronica Burton personal take foul
PHX 95·GS 89
−2pp
- Q4·27.3
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 95·GS 89
−0.6pp
- Q4·28.3
Kate Martin misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 95·GS 89
−2pp
- Q4·32.9
Alyssa Thomas lost ball turnover (Carla Leite steals)
·
PHX 95·GS 89
+3pp
- Q4·34.9
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 95·GS 89
−0.9pp
- Q4·37.1
Kate Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 95·GS 89
−3pp
- Q4·44.5
shot clock turnover
PHX 95·GS 89
+2pp
- Q4·44.5
(00:44.5) [Mercury] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
PHX 95·GS 89
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:09
Mercury defensive team rebound
PHX 95·GS 89
- Q4·1:10
Carla Leite misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 95·GS 89
−9pp
- Q4·1:10
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 95·GS 89
+11pp
- Q4·1:10
(01:10) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeout
PHX 95·GS 88
−3pp
- Q4·1:10
Mercury Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 95·GS 88
−7pp
- Q4·1:10
Kahleah Copper loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 95·GS 88
+7pp
- Q4·1:10
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
PHX 95·GS 88
+0.5pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
GS
Home
34-69
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-77
49
FG %
42
11-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-35
19-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-17
22
Assists
20
10
Turnovers
3
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
GS
43.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
85.6
PPG
86.0
86.4
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1