Aug 14, 25sim 96
977
17(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6IND
PHX
16-10
101107
IND
15-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Phoenix Mercury, 107–101.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
24.5Game score
32
Pts
15
Reb
7
Ast
IND · top performer
Aari McDonald
G · #2
21.3Game score
27
Pts
0
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX16-10
101107
IND15-12
PHX16-10IND15-12
PHX
16-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -6 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 24 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 31 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 101 | 31 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown | ||||||||
IND
15-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6 | |
| 30 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 31 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | |
| 13 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +19 | |
| 10 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 13 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 23 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 107 | 33 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
52
18
Ast
19
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jul 30PHX101@IND107today
PHX101@IND107todayAug 8IND60@PHX95
IND60@PHX95Sep 3IND79@PHX85
IND79@PHX85Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 9:15
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
INDA. McDonald
GGame leader · 31 min
27 PTS · 0 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
IND beat PHX 107-101. A. McDonald paced them with 27 PTS, 0 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 35-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
32 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST
GS 24
INDstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
32 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 1:06 · 25-16
+10pp→ 38% WP
Satou Sabally · technical foul
PHX4th Quarter · 9:15 · 76-76
+13pp→ 57% WP
Lexie Hull · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 6:48 · 77-84
+10pp→ 88% WP
Sami Whitcomb · lost ball turnover (Aari McDonald steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 30 | 20 | 22 | 29 | 101 |
| IND | 20 | 35 | 19 | 33 | 107 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · IND won 2
30
20
Q1
Thomas 8
McDonald 5
20
35
Q2
Thomas 6
McDonald 12
22
19
Q3
Whitcomb 9
Dantas 9
29
33
Q4
Thomas 12
Boston 17
PHX
IND
Shooting comparison
PHX
IND
49%
36-73
FG
52%
32-62
33%
7-21
3PT
46%
11-24
85%
22-26
FT
84%
32-38
Play-by-play · 469 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 101·IND 107
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 101·IND 107
- Q4·9.9
Alyssa Thomas makes 5-foot layup (Lexi Held assists)
·
PHX 101·IND 107
- Q4·18.2
Sophie Cunningham makes driving layup
PHX 99·IND 107
+1pp
- Q4·34.5
Alyssa Thomas makes two point shot
PHX 99·IND 105
- Q4·40.2
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 97·IND 105
- Q4·41.4
Sophie Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 97·IND 105
−1pp
- Q4·41.4
Natasha Howard enters the game for Sydney Colson
·
PHX 97·IND 105
- Q4·41.4
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 97·IND 105
- Q4·41.4
Kathryn Westbeld personal foul
PHX 97·IND 104
+0.9pp
- Q4·50.2
Sydney Colson enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·50.2
Fever defensive team rebound
PHX 97·IND 104
+0.6pp
- Q4·53.4
Lexi Held misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 97·IND 104
+2pp
- Q4·1:01
Natasha Howard enters the game for Chloe Bibby
·
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·1:01
Mercury timeout
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·1:01
Chloe Bibby lost ball turnover (Kathryn Westbeld steals)
·
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·1:01
Kathryn Westbeld vs. Chloe Bibby (Kahleah Copper gains possession)
· ·
PHX 97·IND 104
−2pp
- Q4·1:06
Chloe Bibby enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·1:06
Fever Full timeout
PHX 97·IND 104
- Q4·1:12
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 97·IND 104
+2pp
- Q4·1:12
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 96·IND 104
−3pp
- Q4·1:12
Sami Whitcomb makes technical free throw
PHX 95·IND 104
- Q4·1:12
Stephanie White technical foul
PHX 94·IND 104
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:12
Aari McDonald personal foul
PHX 94·IND 104
−1pp
- Q4·1:17
Aari McDonald makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 94·IND 104
- Q4·1:17
Kelsey Mitchell enters the game for Chloe Bibby
·
PHX 94·IND 103
- Q4·1:17
Aari McDonald makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 94·IND 103
- Q4·1:17
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Satou Sabally
·
PHX 94·IND 102
- Q4·1:17
Satou Sabally personal foul
PHX 94·IND 102
+1pp
- Q4·1:33
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
PHX 94·IND 102
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
IND
Home
36-73
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-62
49
FG %
52
7-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-24
22-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
32-38
18
Assists
19
17
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
IND
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
32.1%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4