Aug 20, 25sim 97
1198
129689(H)91
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4IND
IND
17-12
7874
SEA
16-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 78–74. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #6
21.5Game score
21
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
12.9Game score
12
Pts
9
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND17-12
7874
SEA16-13
IND17-12SEA16-13
IND
17-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 31 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +4 | |
| 30 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 33 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 33 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 78 | 32 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, M. Timpson, C. Clark | ||||||||
SEA
16-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | |
| 32 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 24 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 34 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | |
| 26 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 21 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +5 | |
| 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| Team | 74 | 33 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
44
27
Ast
20
Season series
IND wins series 3-0
Jun 25IND94@SEA86
IND94@SEA86Aug 3IND78@SEA74today
IND78@SEA74todayAug 26SEA75@IND95
SEA75@IND95Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 8.1
INDN. Howard
FGame leader · 32 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 32 min
12 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
IND beat SEA 78-74. N. Howard led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Kelsey Mitchell's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 28 REB · 23 AST
GS 63
Bench(4)
6 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
SEAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST
GS 41
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA4th Quarter · 2:14 · 73-71
+15pp→ 47% WP
Aari McDonald · shooting foul
SEA4th Quarter · 1:23 · 75-72
+15pp→ 26% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND4th Quarter · 8.1 · 77-74
+18pp→ 90% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes driving layup (Sophie Cunningham assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 17 | 25 | 16 | 20 | 78 |
| SEA | 16 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 74 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · SEA won 1
17
16
Q1
Howard 6
Magbegor 17
25
18
Q2
Dantas 6
Malonga 4
16
20
Q3
Cunningham 7
Williams 6
20
20
Q4
Boston 10
Malonga 6
IND
SEA
Shooting comparison
IND
SEA
48%
32-67
FG
44%
30-68
18%
4-22
3PT
13%
2-15
77%
10-13
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 373 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 78·SEA 74
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 78·SEA 74
−1pp
- Q4·2.0
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
IND 78·SEA 74
- Q4·2.3
Aliyah Boston misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 78·SEA 74
+1pp
- Q4·2.3
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 78·SEA 74
- Q4·2.3
Skylar Diggins personal foul
IND 77·SEA 74
−1pp
- Q4·3.7
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 77·SEA 74
−2pp
- Q4·5.1
Gabby Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 77·SEA 74
−7pp
- Q4·8.1
Natasha Howard enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 77·SEA 74
- Q4·8.1
Storm timeout
IND 77·SEA 74
- Q4·8.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup (Sophie Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 77·SEA 74
−18pp
- Q4·10.7
Lexie Hull enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 75·SEA 74
- Q4·10.7
Fever Full timeout
IND 75·SEA 74
−0.5pp
- Q4·12.2
Dominique Malonga makes 8-foot two point shot (Nneka Ogwumike assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 75·SEA 74
+13pp
- Q4·16.6
Gabby Williams offensive rebound
IND 75·SEA 72
+5pp
- Q4·20.5
Nneka Ogwumike misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−9pp
- Q4·26.1
Storm offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
+6pp
- Q4·28.9
Erica Wheeler misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−9pp
- Q4·35.8
Storm Full timeout
IND 75·SEA 72
- Q4·35.8
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
IND 75·SEA 72
+2pp
- Q4·38.1
Aari McDonald misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 75·SEA 72
+4pp
- Q4·57.4
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
IND 75·SEA 72
−3pp
- Q4·1:00
Skylar Diggins misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−8pp
- Q4·1:03
Dominique Malonga offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
+7pp
- Q4·1:07
Skylar Diggins misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−8pp
- Q4·1:19
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
IND 75·SEA 72
+2pp
- Q4·1:23
Kelsey Mitchell misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
IND 75·SEA 72
+15pp
- Q4·1:39
Skylar Diggins personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−13pp
- Q4·1:40
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 75·SEA 72
−2pp
- Q4·1:44
Dominique Malonga misses 9-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 75·SEA 72
−6pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
32-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-68
48
FG %
44
4-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-15
10-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
27
Assists
20
16
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA0.9± 1.3low
Steals
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
SEA
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.6%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶34.1%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
79.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6