Sep 1, 25sim 97
563
129689(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8NY
NY
25-17
8476
SEA
22-21
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 84–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
23.9Game score
24
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
17.3Game score
20
Pts
9
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Seattle Storm · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY25-17
8476
SEA22-21
NY25-17SEA22-21
NY
25-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +14 | |
USG%.27771 ORB%.05671 DRB%.24771 | ||||||||
| 31 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 31 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 24 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| Team | 84 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 13 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, S. Ionescu | ||||||||
SEA
22-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 31 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -15 | |
| 35 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 23 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 16 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 22 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 76 | 26 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, M. Holmes, L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
44
22
Ast
19
Season series
SEA wins series 2-1
Jun 22NY79@SEA89
NY79@SEA89Jul 6SEA79@NY70
SEA79@NY70Sep 6NY84@SEA76today
NY84@SEA76todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ SEA
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 1:42
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 36 min
24 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 33 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
NY beat SEA 84-76. B. Stewart led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. SEA outscored the other side 31-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SEA vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST
GS 19
SEAstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 44
Bench(3)
22 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 2.1 · 59-60
+12pp→ 47% WP
Erica Wheeler · misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA4th Quarter · 8:00 · 64-62
+16pp→ 40% WP
Jonquel Jones · turnover
SEA4th Quarter · 1:42 · 78-74
+19pp→ 33% WP
Liberty Coach's Challenge ·
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 22 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 84 |
| SEA | 16 | 31 | 13 | 16 | 76 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · SEA won 1
22
16
Q1
Fiebich 11
Sykes 4
17
31
Q2
Stewart 6
Wheeler 9
20
13
Q3
Burke 8
Sykes 5
25
16
Q4
Stewart 13
Ogwumike 8
NY
SEA
Shooting comparison
NY
SEA
49%
27-55
FG
44%
30-68
45%
9-20
3PT
20%
4-20
91%
21-23
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 360 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·5.2
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·8.7
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·13.8
Storm Full timeout
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·13.8
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 84·SEA 76
- Q4·13.8
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 83·SEA 76
- Q4·13.8
Skylar Diggins personal foul
NY 82·SEA 76
−0.6pp
- Q4·16.2
Liberty timeout
NY 82·SEA 76
- Q4·16.2
Gabby Williams out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 82·SEA 76
−2pp
- Q4·19.6
Storm Full timeout
NY 82·SEA 76
- Q4·19.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 82·SEA 76
+1pp
- Q4·19.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 81·SEA 76
- Q4·19.6
Ezi Magbegor personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 80·SEA 76
−6pp
- Q4·30.2
Nneka Ogwumike makes layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
NY 80·SEA 76
−4pp
- Q4·36.1
Natasha Cloud personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 80·SEA 74
+6pp
- Q4·46.8
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 80·SEA 74
+2pp
- Q4·46.8
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 79·SEA 74
−0.8pp
- Q4·46.8
Erica Wheeler personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
−5pp
- Q4·46.8
(00:46.8) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Liberty] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
−7pp
- Q4·46.8
Liberty Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
+6pp
- Q4·1:00
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
NY 78·SEA 74
−2pp
- Q4·1:03
Erica Wheeler misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
−6pp
- Q4·1:16
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
NY 78·SEA 74
+2pp
- Q4·1:19
Kennedy Burke misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 78·SEA 74
+5pp
- Q4·1:42
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 78·SEA 74
−2pp
- Q4·1:42
Skylar Diggins misses driving layup
NY 78·SEA 74
+2pp
- Q4·1:42
(01:42) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Liberty] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
−21pp
- Q4·1:42
Liberty Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
NY 78·SEA 74
+19pp
- Q4·1:46
Breanna Stewart lost ball turnover (Skylar Diggins steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 78·SEA 74
+10pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
27-55
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-68
49
FG %
44
9-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-20
21-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
22
Assists
19
13
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort
Jonquel JonesNY · CORB%.08986
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786- Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.27771
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA12.8± 6.6low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
Assists
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
Steals
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
SEA
45.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.6%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.1%
86.6
PPG
◀
85.4
79.5
21.7
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.0
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6