Sep 3, 25sim 97
958
129689(H)66
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+12GS
IND
21-19
6375
GS
21-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Indiana Fever, 75–63.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aerial Powers
G · #23
12.0Game score
17
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
GS · top performer
Iliana Rupert
C · #12
15.7Game score
21
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND21-19
6375
GS21-18
IND21-19GS21-18
IND
21-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | |
| 30 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -15 | |
| 30 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 33 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 33 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -16 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 19 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 63 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: M. Timpson | ||||||||
GS
21-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 31 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +10 | |
| 32 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +15 | |
| 28 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 35 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +13 | |
| 10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 75 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 19 | ||
| DNP: B. Hall, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
51
15
Ast
19
Season series
GS wins series 3-0
Jun 20IND77@GS88
IND77@GS88Jul 9GS80@IND61
GS80@IND61Sep 1IND63@GS75today
IND63@GS75todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 7:08
INDA. Powers
GGame leader · 19 min
17 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
GSI. Rupert
CGame leader · 32 min
21 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat IND 75-63. I. Rupert led with 21 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 25-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
44 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST
GS 26
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
GS 14
GSstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 40
Bench(3)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 6:35 · 5-11
+6pp→ 60% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Veronica Burton assists)
GS1st Quarter · 5:52 · 5-14
+6pp→ 69% WP
Iliana Rupert · makes 23-foot three pointer (Janelle Salaun assists)
GS4th Quarter · 7:08 · 50-58
+7pp→ 88% WP
Kate Martin · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Temi Fagbenle assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 14 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 63 |
| GS | 25 | 19 | 11 | 20 | 75 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · GS won 3
14
25
Q1
Mitchell 4
Rupert 9
18
19
Q2
Powers 5
Salaun 4
16
11
Q3
Howard 7
Leite 3
15
20
Q4
Powers 10
Rupert 8
IND
GS
Shooting comparison
IND
GS
33%
21-63
FG
51%
28-55
20%
6-30
3PT
63%
12-19
83%
15-18
FT
78%
7-9
Play-by-play · 349 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 63·GS 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 63·GS 75
- Q4·1.8
shot clock turnover
IND 63·GS 75
- Q4·26.5
Aerial Powers makes 20-foot running pullup jump shot
IND 63·GS 75
- Q4·31.6
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·34.6
Iliana Rupert misses 15-foot jumper
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·52.8
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·54.8
Aerial Powers misses free throw 1 of 1
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·54.8
Brianna Turner enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·54.8
Kaila Charles shooting foul
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·54.8
Aerial Powers makes driving layup (Shey Peddy assists)
·
IND 61·GS 75
- Q4·1:10
Temi Fagbenle makes 10-foot two point shot (Carla Leite assists)
·
IND 59·GS 75
- Q4·1:30
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
IND 59·GS 73
- Q4·1:32
Aerial Powers misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 59·GS 73
- Q4·1:32
Shey Peddy enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 59·GS 73
- Q4·1:32
Aerial Powers makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 59·GS 73
- Q4·1:32
Veronica Burton shooting foul
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·1:39
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·1:41
Carla Leite misses free throw 1 of 1
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·1:41
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·1:41
Natasha Howard shooting foul
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·1:41
Carla Leite makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
IND 58·GS 73
- Q4·2:03
Lexie Hull lost ball turnover (Carla Leite steals)
·
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:08
Veronica Burton bad pass (Natasha Howard steals)
·
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:31
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:31
Aerial Powers personal foul
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:34
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:37
Natasha Howard misses 13-foot step back jumpshot
IND 58·GS 71
- Q4·2:54
Iliana Rupert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
·
IND 58·GS 71
+0.7pp
- Q4·3:09
Natasha Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 58·GS 68
+0.7pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
GS
Home
21-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-55
33
FG %
51
6-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-19
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-9
15
Assists
19
14
Turnovers
19
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
GS
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1