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FINAL+25MIN
DAL

DAL

9-32

7196
MIN

MIN

32-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAMon, Sep 1FinalSeriesMIN wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Dallas Wings, 96–71. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Paige Bueckers

Paige Bueckers

G · #5

10.7Game score

17

Pts

1

Reb

2

Ast

MIN · top performer

MIN
Napheesa Collier

Napheesa Collier

F · #24

24.5Game score

25

Pts

3

Reb

1

Ast

WNBA · Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
71
96
DAL9-32MIN32-8
DAL

DAL

9-32

71
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
M. Hines-AllenM. Hines-Allen★F · #2
29782013-9
A. OkonkwoA. Okonkwo★F · #0
271241302-17
M. SiegristM. Siegrist★F · #20
301242201-14
G. BergerG. Berger★G · #9
30244202-15
P. BueckersP. Bueckers★G · #5
291712001-13
D. MillerD. MillerF · #1
291242202-29
C. WilliamsC. WilliamsG · #13
18922001-21
Team7127159113
DNP: L. Yueru, L. Geiselsoder, A. Ogunbowale, T. Harris, A. James, J. Quinerly, H. Jones
MIN

MIN

32-8

96
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. CarletonB. Carleton★F · #6
281200011+15
A. SmithA. Smith★F · #8
20444101+11
N. CollierN. Collier★F · #24
232531030+7
C. WilliamsC. Williams★G · #10
271539202+10
D. CarringtonD. Carrington★G · #3
10410111+9
J. ShepardJ. ShepardF · #15
20882102+7
M. KliundikovaF · #77
20470212+15
N. HiedemanN. HiedemanG · #2
3020310001+28
J. SherrodJ. SherrodG · #00
12210001+14
Team9632287613
DNP: K. McBride

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

39

FG %

55

15

Ast

28

Season series

MIN wins series 4-0

May 16MINMIN99@DALDAL84
May 22DALDAL81@MINMIN85
Jun 8MINMIN81@DALDAL65
Sep 2DALDAL71@MINMIN96today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:44

DALDAL
P. Bueckers

P. Bueckers

G

Game leader · 29 min

17 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST

MINMIN
N. Collier

N. Collier

F

Game leader · 23 min

25 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 96-71. N. Collier paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs DAL

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
DALDALstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 21 REB · 11 AST

GS 36

Bench(3)

21 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

GS 9

MINMINstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 11 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
DAL2120181271
MIN2523232596

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · MIN won 4

21
25

Q1

Siegrist 8

Collier 11

20
23

Q2

Bueckers 7

Collier 7

18
23

Q3

Bueckers 6

Hiedeman 10

12
25

Q4

Williams 5

Shepard 8

DAL
MIN

Shooting comparison

DAL
MIN

39%

26-67

FG

55%

36-65

20%

3-15

3PT

58%

14-24

70%

16-23

FT

91%

10-11

Play-by-play · 367 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    DAL 71·MIN 96

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    DAL 71·MIN 96

  3. Q4·18.8

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound

    DAL 71·MIN 96

  4. Q4·21.5

    Diamond Miller misses 24-foot three point jumper

    DAL 71·MIN 96

  5. Q4·35.4

    Natisha Hiedeman makes 25-foot jump bank shot

    DAL 71·MIN 96

  6. Q4·52.1

    Diamond Miller makes two point shot

    DAL 71·MIN 93

  7. Q4·55.5

    Camryn Taylor lost ball turnover (Diamond Miller steals)

    ·

    DAL 69·MIN 93

  8. Q4·1:02

    Amy Okonkwo turnover

    DAL 69·MIN 93

  9. Q4·1:02

    Amy Okonkwo offensive charge

    DAL 69·MIN 93

  10. Q4·1:06

    Maria Kliundikova bad pass (Diamond Miller steals)

    ·

    DAL 69·MIN 93

  11. Q4·1:21

    Christyn Williams makes free throw 2 of 2

    ·

    DAL 69·MIN 93

  12. Q4·1:21

    Wings offensive team rebound

    DAL 68·MIN 93

  13. Q4·1:21

    Christyn Williams misses free throw 1 of 2

    ·

    DAL 68·MIN 93

  14. Q4·1:21

    Camryn Taylor shooting foul

    DAL 68·MIN 93

  15. Q4·1:40

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes two point shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)

    ·

    DAL 68·MIN 93

  16. Q4·1:44

    Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  17. Q4·1:47

    Amy Okonkwo misses 23-foot three point jumper

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  18. Q4·1:59

    Wings defensive team rebound

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  19. Q4·2:00

    Natisha Hiedeman misses 12-foot pullup jump shot

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  20. Q4·2:11

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  21. Q4·2:15

    Diamond Miller misses driving layup

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  22. Q4·2:22

    Maria Kliundikova makes driving layup

    DAL 68·MIN 91

  23. Q4·2:37

    Diamond Miller turnover

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  24. Q4·2:37

    Diamond Miller offensive foul

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  25. Q4·2:55

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu turnover

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  26. Q4·2:55

    Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive foul

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  27. Q4·3:03

    Camryn Taylor enters the game for Jessica Shepard

    ·

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  28. Q4·3:03

    Lynx Full timeout

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  29. Q4·3:10

    Jessica Shepard defensive rebound

    DAL 68·MIN 89

  30. Q4·3:12

    Diamond Miller misses driving layup

    DAL 68·MIN 89

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

26-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-65

39

FG %

55

3-15

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-24

16-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-11

15

Assists

28

13

Turnovers

13

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 8 players in cohort
  • Paige BueckersDAL · G
    TS%.62099+
  • Jessica ShepardDAL · F
    ORB%.10999+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Paige BueckersDAL
    18.6± 8.3low
  • Natasha HowardMIN
    15.3± 11.8low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    14.5± 3.8low

Rebounds

  • Jessica ShepardDAL
    10.7± 6.4low
  • Natasha HowardMIN
    7.4± 4.8low
  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    5.3± 3.5low

Assists

  • Jessica ShepardDAL
    6.0± 4.9low
  • Paige BueckersDAL
    5.3± 3.3low
  • Olivia MilesMIN
    5.3± 2.9low

Blocks

  • Nia CoffeyMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Awak KuierDAL
    0.9± 1.1low
  • Liatu KingMIN
    0.9± 1.6low

Steals

  • Kayla McBrideMIN
    1.8± 1.6low
  • Aziaha JamesDAL
    1.5± 1.8low
  • Courtney WilliamsMIN
    1.3± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

DAL

league avg

MIN

MIN

46.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

50.1%

37.3%

3PT %

◀

32.6

34.5%

88.9

PPG

85.4

88.4

23.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

21.1

10.3

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop