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FINAL+25ATL
CON

CON

11-32

6287
ATL

ATL

29-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAMon, Sep 8FinalSeriesATL wins series 4-1

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Connecticut Sun, 87–62. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

CON
Aneesah Morrow

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

8.5Game score

13

Pts

14

Reb

0

Ast

ATL · top performer

ATL
Rhyne Howard

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

16.5Game score

18

Pts

5

Reb

6

Ast

WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
62
87
CON11-32ATL29-14
CON

CON

11-32

62
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
A. MorrowA. Morrow★F · #24
3113140114-23
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
281222001-15
L. AllenL. Allen★G · #15
28413001-26
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
32835003-11
S. RiversS. Rivers★G · #22
291642012-22
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
10310001-10
A. EdwardsA. EdwardsF · #8
15350201-10
M. ToureM. ToureG · #28
20323001-6
Team6233153314
ATL

ATL

29-14

87
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. JonesB. Jones★F · #24
20851100+11
N. HillmonN. Hillmon★F · #0
321454402+32
A. GrayA. Gray★G · #15
201560000+11
J. CanadaJ. Canada★G · #3
25646213+21
R. HowardR. Howard★G · #10
311856201+24
N. CoffeyN. CoffeyF · #12
10030010-6
B. GrinerB. GrinerC · #42
151020031+12
M. CaldwellM. CaldwellG · #33
241131300+18
T. PaopaoT. PaopaoG · #2
15524002+4
Team8741231259

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

36

FG %

47

15

Ast

23

Season series

ATL wins series 4-1

May 25CONCON55@ATLATL79
Jun 6ATLATL76@CONCON84
Sep 1ATLATL93@CONCON76
Sep 8CONCON62@ATLATL87today
Sep 10ATLATL88@CONCON72

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:58

CONCON
A. Morrow

A. Morrow

F

Game leader · 31 min

13 PTS · 14 REB · 0 AST

ATLATL
R. Howard

R. Howard

G

Game leader · 31 min

18 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

ATL beat CON 87-62. R. Howard led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 23-9 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs CON

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
CONCONstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

Bench(4)

9 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 5

ATLATLstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
CON241991062
ATL2619231987

Period scoring

CON won 0 · ATL won 3

24
26

Q1

Rivers 7

Hillmon 10

19
19

Q2

Mabrey 5

Gray 6

9
23

Q3

Rivers 6

Howard 11

10
19

Q4

Morrow 7

Caldwell 8

CON
ATL

Shooting comparison

CON
ATL

36%

24-66

FG

47%

35-74

35%

7-20

3PT

31%

8-26

64%

7-11

FT

90%

9-10

Play-by-play · 358 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    CON 62·ATL 87

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    CON 62·ATL 87

  3. Q4·17.6

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  4. Q4·21.0

    Mamignan Toure misses 8-foot pullup jump shot

    CON 62·ATL 87

  5. Q4·45.8

    Sun defensive team rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  6. Q4·46.0

    Rayah Marshall blocks Sika Kone's layup

    ·

    CON 62·ATL 87

  7. Q4·57.1

    Sika Kone defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  8. Q4·59.8

    Aneesah Morrow misses layup

    CON 62·ATL 87

  9. Q4·1:13

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  10. Q4·1:16

    Sika Kone misses layup

    CON 62·ATL 87

  11. Q4·1:23

    Nia Coffey defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  12. Q4·1:27

    Mamignan Toure misses driving floating jump shot

    CON 62·ATL 87

  13. Q4·1:40

    Rayah Marshall defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  14. Q4·1:47

    Sika Kone misses 22-foot three point jumper

    CON 62·ATL 87

  15. Q4·2:02

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  16. Q4·2:06

    Mamignan Toure misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot

    CON 62·ATL 87

  17. Q4·2:11

    Saniya Rivers offensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 87

  18. Q4·2:15

    Saniya Rivers misses 1-foot two point shot

    CON 62·ATL 87

  19. Q4·2:24

    Te-Hina Paopao makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sika Kone assists)

    ·

    CON 62·ATL 87

  20. Q4·2:40

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound

    CON 62·ATL 84

  21. Q4·2:45

    Aneesah Morrow misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot

    CON 62·ATL 84

  22. Q4·2:58

    Dream Full timeout

    CON 62·ATL 84

  23. Q4·2:58

    Te-Hina Paopao out of bounds lost ball turnover

    CON 62·ATL 84

  24. Q4·3:11

    Aneesah Morrow makes two point shot

    CON 62·ATL 84

  25. Q4·3:13

    Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound

    CON 60·ATL 84

  26. Q4·3:15

    Aneesah Morrow misses free throw 1 of 1

    CON 60·ATL 84

  27. Q4·3:15

    Lindsay Allen enters the game for Marina Mabrey

    ·

    CON 60·ATL 84

  28. Q4·3:15

    Sika Kone enters the game for Naz Hillmon

    ·

    CON 60·ATL 84

  29. Q4·3:15

    Naz Hillmon shooting foul

    CON 60·ATL 84

  30. Q4·3:15

    Aneesah Morrow makes driving layup (Mamignan Toure assists)

    ·

    CON 60·ATL 84

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

24-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-74

36

FG %

47

7-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-26

7-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-10

15

Assists

23

14

Turnovers

9

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · CON favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Allisha GrayATL
    16.8± 11.4low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    13.8± 9.6low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low

Rebounds

  • Angel ReeseATL
    9.8± 5.0low
  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    5.2± 1.1low

Assists

  • Jordin CanadaATL
    5.6± 4.7low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    3.8± 3.1low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low

Blocks

  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low
  • Angel ReeseATL
    0.8± 1.3low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    0.6± 1.2low

Steals

  • Rhyne HowardATL
    2.3± 2.6low
  • Jordin CanadaATL
    1.7± 3.2low
  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

CON

league avg

ATL

ATL

40.7%

FG%

44.7

▶

43.6%

26.0%

3PT %

32.6

▶

31.4%

74.7

PPG

85.4

▶

83.9

17.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

19.9

14.8

Turnovers / G

13.0

14.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop