Jul 29, 25sim 92
1986
16(H)103
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LA
WSH
16-25
7881
LA
18-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks held off Washington Mystics, 81–78. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
16.0Game score
22
Pts
13
Reb
1
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
16.6Game score
20
Pts
12
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH16-25
7881
LA18-20
WSH16-25LA18-20
WSH
16-25
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 27 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 22 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 27 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 26 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 15 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +10 | |
| 25 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +8 | |
| 21 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| Team | 78 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, M. Scott, G. Amoore | ||||||||
LA
18-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +15 | |
| 29 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +12 | |
| 27 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 33 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +22 | |
| 30 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -15 | |
| 16 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | |
| Team | 81 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, A. Pili | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
40
20
Ast
19
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jul 16WSH80@LA99
WSH80@LA99Jul 22LA93@WSH86
LA93@WSH86Aug 17LA86@WSH95
LA86@WSH95Sep 1WSH78@LA81today
WSH78@LA81todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:42
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 27 min
22 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 35 min
20 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
LA beat WSH 81-78. D. Hamby led with 20 PTS, 12 REB, 0 AST. LA outscored the other side 22-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST
GS 35
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST
GS 25
LAstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 36 REB · 14 AST
GS 54
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 8:21 · 56-55
+12pp→ 52% WP
Stefanie Dolson · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)
WSH4th Quarter · 5:42 · 61-61
+13pp→ 48% WP
Sonia Citron · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
LA4th Quarter · 4:07 · 63-68
+12pp→ 82% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julie Allemand assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 11 | 20 | 18 | 29 | 78 |
| LA | 22 | 18 | 15 | 26 | 81 |
Period scoring
WSH won 3 · LA won 1
11
22
Q1
Melbourne 4
Jackson 8
20
18
Q2
Iriafen 5
Hamby 6
18
15
Q3
Iriafen 6
Jackson 5
29
26
Q4
Iriafen 9
Plum 14
WSH
LA
Shooting comparison
WSH
LA
39%
28-72
FG
40%
28-70
39%
9-23
3PT
28%
10-36
72%
13-18
FT
83%
15-18
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 78·LA 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 78·LA 81
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Mystics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
WSH 78·LA 81
+2pp
- Q4·4.0
Sonia Citron makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
WSH 78·LA 81
−1pp
- Q4·7.8
Mystics timeout
WSH 75·LA 81
- Q4·7.8
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 75·LA 81
- Q4·7.8
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 75·LA 80
- Q4·7.8
Sonia Citron personal foul
WSH 75·LA 79
+2pp
- Q4·10.2
Shakira Austin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sonia Citron assists)
·
WSH 75·LA 79
−2pp
- Q4·19.7
Dearica Hamby makes 1-foot two point shot (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
WSH 72·LA 79
+4pp
- Q4·43.4
Kiki Iriafen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sonia Citron assists)
·
WSH 72·LA 77
−3pp
- Q4·52.0
shot clock turnover
WSH 69·LA 77
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:14
Jade Melbourne bad pass (Dearica Hamby steals)
·
WSH 69·LA 77
+1pp
- Q4·1:21
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 69·LA 77
- Q4·1:23
Julie Allemand misses driving layup
WSH 69·LA 77
- Q4·1:41
Shakira Austin makes driving layup (Sonia Citron assists)
·
WSH 69·LA 77
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:52
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
WSH 67·LA 77
- Q4·1:56
Dearica Hamby misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 67·LA 77
−1pp
- Q4·1:56
Kiki Iriafen enters the game for Emily Engstler
·
WSH 67·LA 77
- Q4·1:56
Shakira Austin shooting foul
WSH 67·LA 77
+1pp
- Q4·1:56
Dearica Hamby makes layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
WSH 67·LA 77
+1pp
- Q4·2:17
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
WSH 67·LA 75
- Q4·2:17
Shakira Austin misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 67·LA 75
+2pp
- Q4·2:37
Rae Burrell makes two point shot
WSH 67·LA 75
+3pp
- Q4·2:42
Sonia Citron bad pass (Julie Allemand steals)
·
WSH 67·LA 73
+4pp
- Q4·2:55
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 67·LA 73
−3pp
- Q4·2:55
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 67·LA 72
+1pp
- Q4·2:55
Sonia Citron personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 67·LA 71
+7pp
- Q4·3:02
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Sug Sutton
·
WSH 67·LA 71
- Q4·3:02
Rae Burrell enters the game for Rickea Jackson
·
WSH 67·LA 71
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LA
Home
28-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-70
39
FG %
40
9-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-36
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-18
20
Assists
19
11
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angela DugalicWSH0.6± 0.7low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
LA
45.7%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.3%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
15.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4