Jun 26, 25sim 95
1859
17(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17WSH
CHI
7-19
86103
WSH
13-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Chicago Sky, 103–86.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
20.2Game score
22
Pts
13
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
21.4Game score
22
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI7-19
86103
WSH13-13
CHI7-19WSH13-13
CHI
7-19
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -11 | |
| 29 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 37 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 33 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 33 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 12 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 86 | 37 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: C. Vandersloot, A. Atkins, H. Van Lith, S. Uzun | ||||||||
WSH
13-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +23 | |
| 20 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| 32 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 24 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 29 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +14 | |
| 18 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +10 | |
| 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| Team | 103 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
51
16
Ast
25
Season series
WSH wins series 3-1
Jun 18WSH79@CHI72
WSH79@CHI72Jul 8CHI79@WSH81
CHI79@WSH81Jul 29CHI86@WSH103today
CHI86@WSH103todayAug 6WSH64@CHI78
WSH64@CHI78Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 34pp · 1st Quarter · 3:20
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 32 min
22 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 30 min
22 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
WSH beat CHI 103-86. K. Iriafen led with 22 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. Michaela Onyenwere's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 31 REB · 11 AST
GS 64
Bench(3)
7 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
GS 1
WSHstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST
GS 69
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 19
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH2nd Quarter · 7:41 · 31-39
+29pp→ 82% WP
Angel Reese · misses layup
CHI2nd Quarter · 6:30 · 36-39
+11pp→ 31% WP
Rebecca Allen · makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Rachel Banham assists)
CHI1st Quarter · 3:20 · 19-16
+34pp→ 48% WP
Michaela Onyenwere · lost ball turnover (Brittney Sykes steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 27 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 86 |
| WSH | 30 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 103 |
Period scoring
CHI won 0 · WSH won 4
27
30
Q1
Reese 9
Citron 12
20
25
Q2
Cardoso 6
Reese 23
22
25
Q3
Cardoso 8
Austin 39
17
23
Q4
Reese 7
Dolson 18
CHI
WSH
Shooting comparison
CHI
WSH
45%
32-71
FG
51%
36-71
32%
6-19
3PT
42%
10-24
89%
16-18
FT
78%
21-27
Play-by-play · 409 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·8.1
Rebecca Allen out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·17.0
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·20.1
Lucy Olsen misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·28.1
Emily Engstler offensive rebound
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·31.2
Brittney Sykes misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·38.1
Maddy Westbeld enters the game for Angel Reese
·
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·38.1
Lucy Olsen enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·38.1
Emily Engstler enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·38.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·41.1
Kiki Iriafen misses two point shot
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·43.1
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·47.1
Sonia Citron misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·1:00
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·1:03
Kia Nurse misses driving layup
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·1:15
Sonia Citron makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 86·WSH 101
- Q4·1:32
Rachel Banham makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 86·WSH 98
- Q4·1:47
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 1
CHI 84·WSH 98
- Q4·1:47
Kia Nurse shooting foul
CHI 84·WSH 97
- Q4·1:47
Sonia Citron makes driving layup
CHI 84·WSH 97
- Q4·2:09
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
CHI 84·WSH 95
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:12
Angel Reese misses driving layup
CHI 84·WSH 95
- Q4·2:19
Sky Full timeout
CHI 84·WSH 95
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:19
Sonia Citron personal foul
CHI 84·WSH 95
−0.5pp
- Q4·2:37
Kiki Iriafen makes layup
CHI 84·WSH 95
- Q4·2:38
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
CHI 84·WSH 93
- Q4·2:41
Kiki Iriafen misses 14-foot jumper
CHI 84·WSH 93
- Q4·2:48
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
CHI 84·WSH 93
- Q4·2:53
Kia Nurse misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 84·WSH 93
+0.6pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
32-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-71
45
FG %
51
6-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-24
16-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-27
16
Assists
25
12
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
WSH
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶28.0%
82.8
PPG
85.4
83.4
19.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6