Jun 28, 25sim 95
1978
129689(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10GS
DAL
7-18
7686
GS
11-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Dallas Wings, 86–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
14.2Game score
17
Pts
1
Reb
6
Ast
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
13.4Game score
17
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL7-18
7686
GS11-12
DAL7-18GS11-12
DAL
7-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 30 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 34 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 37 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 24 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 19 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| Team | 76 | 29 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. McCowan, G. Berger | ||||||||
GS
11-12
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +16 | |
| 34 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| 25 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 31 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 31 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 15 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 17 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| Team | 86 | 39 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Martin | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
42
19
Ast
21
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
Jun 18GS71@DAL80
GS71@DAL80Jul 26DAL76@GS86today
DAL76@GS86todayAug 24GS90@DAL81
GS90@DAL81Sep 5DAL80@GS84
DAL80@GS84Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 45pp · 1st Quarter · 5:36
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 37 min
17 PTS · 1 REB · 6 AST
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 31 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
GS beat DAL 86-76. T. Hayes led with 17 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 21-10 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST
GS 36
Bench(3)
27 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
GSstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 5:36 · 3-8
+45pp→ 64% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes two point shot
GS1st Quarter · 4:57 · 5-8
+34pp→ 61% WP
Golden State Valkyries de · lay of game violation
DAL4th Quarter · 3:08 · 72-75
+42pp→ 42% WP
Carla Leite · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 21 | 15 | 24 | 16 | 76 |
| GS | 10 | 20 | 33 | 23 | 86 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · GS won 3
21
10
Q1
Ogunbowale 5
Hayes 6
15
20
Q2
Ogunbowale 3
Ogunbowale 14
24
33
Q3
James 7
Zandalasini 27
16
23
Q4
Bueckers 9
Hayes 12
DAL
GS
Shooting comparison
DAL
GS
42%
27-64
FG
42%
27-64
38%
10-26
3PT
32%
9-28
63%
12-19
FT
92%
23-25
Play-by-play · 392 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of GameBIG MOMENT
DAL 76·GS 86
+42pp
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 76·GS 86
- Q4·18.1
Arike Ogunbowale lost ball turnover (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
DAL 76·GS 86
- Q4·22.0
Wings timeout
DAL 76·GS 86
- Q4·22.0
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·GS 86
- Q4·22.0
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·GS 85
- Q4·22.0
Aziaha James personal foul
DAL 76·GS 84
- Q4·25.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
DAL 76·GS 84
- Q4·28.1
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
DAL 76·GS 84
- Q4·30.0
Haley Jones misses 22-foot jumper
DAL 76·GS 84
+0.8pp
- Q4·37.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·GS 84
−0.7pp
- Q4·37.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·GS 83
- Q4·37.1
Paige Bueckers personal foul
DAL 76·GS 82
+1pp
- Q4·40.0
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
DAL 76·GS 82
+0.8pp
- Q4·42.1
Arike Ogunbowale misses driving layup
DAL 76·GS 82
+3pp
- Q4·50.1
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 76·GS 82
−2pp
- Q4·51.1
Temi Fagbenle blocks Haley Jones 's 5-foot driving layup
·
DAL 76·GS 82
+3pp
- Q4·59.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 76·GS 82
- Q4·59.0
Haley Jones defensive rebound
DAL 76·GS 82
- Q4·1:02
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·GS 82
−5pp
- Q4·1:02
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 76·GS 82
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:02
Arike Ogunbowale personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 76·GS 81
+5pp
- Q4·1:21
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
DAL 76·GS 81
+1pp
- Q4·1:23
Aziaha James misses running pullup jump shot
DAL 76·GS 81
+4pp
- Q4·1:29
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
DAL 76·GS 81
- Q4·1:30
Tiffany Hayes misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 76·GS 81
−7pp
- Q4·1:30
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 76·GS 81
+30pp
- Q4·1:30
Luisa Geiselsoder shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 76·GS 80
+7pp
- Q4·1:41
Haley Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 76·GS 80
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:41
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 75·GS 80
+5pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
GS
Home
27-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-64
42
FG %
42
10-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-28
12-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-25
19
Assists
21
13
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 4.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
GS
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
36.1%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
10.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1