Jun 12, 25sim 95
380
11(H)93
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4LV
DAL
1-11
8488
LV
5-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Dallas Wings, 88–84. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
21.3Game score
26
Pts
4
Reb
8
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
21.7Game score
28
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL1-11
8488
LV5-4
DAL1-11LV5-4
DAL
1-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 26 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | |
| 38 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 35 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| 38 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| Team | 84 | 29 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 15 | ||
| DNP: M. Siegrist, K. Charles | ||||||||
LV
5-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +7 | |
| 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13 | |
| 28 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 28 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 33 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | +10 | |
| 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | |
| 13 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | |
| 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| Team | 88 | 36 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 18 | ||
| DNP: J. Holmes | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
42
24
Ast
15
Season series
LV wins series 4-0
Jun 14DAL84@LV88today
DAL84@LV88todayJul 17LV90@DAL86
LV90@DAL86Jul 27LV106@DAL80
LV106@DAL80Aug 17DAL87@LV106
DAL87@LV106Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 13.2
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 38 min
26 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 33 min
28 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat DAL 88-84. J. Young paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. DAL outscored the other side 30-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 60
Bench(3)
8 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 5
LVstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 60
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 1:35 · 82-79
+11pp→ 36% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · bad pass (Chelsea Gray steals)
LV4th Quarter · 28.1 · 82-84
+12pp→ 69% WP
Jewell Loyd · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
LV4th Quarter · 13.2 · 82-84
+36pp→ 85% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · vs. Jackie Young (Jewell Loyd gains possession)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 22 | 30 | 14 | 84 |
| LV | 24 | 25 | 15 | 24 | 88 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · LV won 3
18
24
Q1
Geiselsoder 5
Loyd 8
22
25
Q2
Ogunbowale 13
Loyd 14
30
15
Q3
Carrington 8
Young 7
14
24
Q4
Geiselsoder 6
Young 13
DAL
LV
Shooting comparison
DAL
LV
47%
33-70
FG
42%
26-62
40%
8-20
3PT
34%
10-29
91%
10-11
FT
93%
26-28
Play-by-play · 383 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 84·LV 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 84·LV 88
- Q4·0.0
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 84·LV 88
- Q4·0.0
Paige Bueckers misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 84·LV 88
+4pp
- Q4·6.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 84·LV 88
−2pp
- Q4·6.1
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 84·LV 87
+0.6pp
- Q4·6.1
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
DAL 84·LV 86
- Q4·6.1
DiJonai Carrington personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 84·LV 86
+8pp
- Q4·8.0
Aziaha James enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
DAL 84·LV 86
- Q4·8.0
Aces timeout
DAL 84·LV 86
- Q4·8.0
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 84·LV 86
+6pp
- Q4·8.0
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 83·LV 86
−2pp
- Q4·8.0
Jewell Loyd shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 86
−7pp
- Q4·13.0
Wings timeout
DAL 82·LV 86
- Q4·13.0
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 82·LV 86
−3pp
- Q4·13.0
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 82·LV 85
+1pp
- Q4·13.0
DiJonai Carrington personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 84
+9pp
- Q4·13.2
DiJonai Carrington bad pass (Jackie Young steals)
·
DAL 82·LV 84
- Q4·13.2
Arike Ogunbowale vs. Jackie Young (Jewell Loyd gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 82·LV 84
+36pp
- Q4·22.1
Kiah Stokes personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 84
−20pp
- Q4·28.1
Wings Full timeout
DAL 82·LV 84
- Q4·28.1
Jewell Loyd makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 82·LV 84
+12pp
- Q4·31.0
Chelsea Gray offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 81
+11pp
- Q4·34.0
Chelsea Gray misses 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 81
−10pp
- Q4·40.2
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Tiffany Mitchell
·
DAL 82·LV 81
- Q4·40.2
Aces Full timeout
DAL 82·LV 81
+2pp
- Q4·56.2
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
DAL 82·LV 81
+2pp
- Q4·59.1
Paige Bueckers misses 21-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·LV 81
+6pp
- Q4·1:05
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
DAL 82·LV 81
- Q4·1:05
Wings Full timeout
DAL 82·LV 81
+0.8pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
LV
Home
33-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-62
47
FG %
42
8-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
10-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-28
24
Assists
15
15
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
LV
46.6%
FG%
44.7
▶49.7%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.9%
88.9
PPG
85.4
▶91.0
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
22.1
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.6