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FINAL+26LV
CON

CON

2-13

5985
LV

LV

7-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBAWed, Jun 25FinalSeriesLV wins series 4-0

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Connecticut Sun, 85–59. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

CON
Saniya Rivers

Saniya Rivers

G · #22

10.1Game score

10

Pts

2

Reb

3

Ast

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

24.5Game score

22

Pts

8

Reb

4

Ast

WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
59
85
CON2-13LV7-7
CON

CON

2-13

59
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
281832103-21
O. Nelson-OdodaO. Nelson-Ododa★C · #10
281250014-18
B. HartleyB. Hartley★G · #14
25612000-30
J. SheldonJ. Sheldon★G · #4
24833201-18
S. RiversS. Rivers★G · #22
301023221-22
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
22160100-8
A. MorrowA. MorrowF · #24
12061012-6
L. AllenL. AllenG · #15
182240000
J. BrownJ. BrownG · #18
12220111-3
Team5930157512
DNP: R. Marshall, M. Mabrey
LV

LV

7-7

85
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
K. StokesK. Stokes★C · #41
20061001+9
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
272284430+33
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
291576035+27
J. LoydJ. Loyd★G · #24
271372002+16
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
262081001+25
K. BellK. BellF · #1
13840110+4
T. MitchellT. MitchellG · #3
102110030
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
17301002+6
A. NyeA. NyeG · #13
23022001+11
Team8545186715
DNP: M. Gustafson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

32

FG %

43

15

Ast

18

Season series

LV wins series 4-0

May 20LVLV87@CONCON62
Jun 26CONCON59@LVLV85today
Jul 6LVLV86@CONCON68
Aug 11CONCON86@LVLV94

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ LV
CONCON
S. Rivers

S. Rivers

G

Game leader · 30 min

10 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 27 min

22 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

LV beat CON 85-59. A. Wilson led with 22 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 21-6 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs CON

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
CONCONstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Bench(5)

5 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

LVLVstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 36 REB · 14 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
CON623171359
LV2119281785

Period scoring

CON won 1 · LV won 3

6
21

Q1

Allen 2

Loyd 8

23
19

Q2

Charles 8

Gray 8

17
28

Q3

Sheldon 5

Wilson 12

13
17

Q4

Charles 6

Gray 4

CON
LV

Shooting comparison

CON
LV

32%

23-71

FG

43%

30-70

15%

2-13

3PT

39%

11-28

92%

11-12

FT

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 378 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    CON 59·LV 85

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    CON 59·LV 85

  3. Q4·3.1

    Sun offensive team rebound

    CON 59·LV 85

  4. Q4·3.1

    Haley Peters misses two point shot

    CON 59·LV 85

  5. Q4·3.2

    Haley Peters offensive rebound

    CON 59·LV 85

  6. Q4·5.1

    Bria Hartley misses two point shot

    CON 59·LV 85

  7. Q4·10.0

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    CON 59·LV 85

  8. Q4·13.1

    Dana Evans misses running pullup jump shot

    CON 59·LV 85

  9. Q4·17.1

    Aneesah Morrow bad pass (Elizabeth Kitley steals)

    ·

    CON 59·LV 85

  10. Q4·38.1

    Dana Evans makes free throw 1 of 1

    CON 59·LV 85

  11. Q4·38.1

    Bria Hartley shooting foul

    CON 59·LV 84

  12. Q4·38.1

    Dana Evans makes driving layup

    CON 59·LV 84

  13. Q4·51.1

    Aneesah Morrow turnover

    CON 59·LV 82

  14. Q4·51.1

    Aneesah Morrow offensive foul

    CON 59·LV 82

  15. Q4·1:02

    Kierstan Bell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Mitchell assists)

    ·

    CON 59·LV 82

  16. Q4·1:11

    Jaelyn Brown makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Aneesah Morrow assists)

    ·

    CON 59·LV 79

  17. Q4·1:27

    Kariata Diaby enters the game for Olivia Nelson-Ododa

    ·

    CON 57·LV 79

  18. Q4·1:27

    Tiffany Mitchell turnover

    CON 57·LV 79

  19. Q4·1:27

    Tiffany Mitchell offensive foul

    CON 57·LV 79

  20. Q4·1:40

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    CON 57·LV 79

  21. Q4·1:44

    Bria Hartley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot

    CON 57·LV 79

  22. Q4·1:49

    Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound

    CON 57·LV 79

  23. Q4·1:52

    Kierstan Bell misses 14-foot jumper

    CON 57·LV 79

  24. Q4·2:09

    Bria Hartley makes driving layup

    CON 57·LV 79

  25. Q4·2:16

    Elizabeth Kitley enters the game for Aaliyah Nye

    ·

    CON 55·LV 79

  26. Q4·2:16

    Jaelyn Brown enters the game for Saniya Rivers

    ·

    CON 55·LV 79

  27. Q4·2:16

    Sun offensive team rebound

    CON 55·LV 79

  28. Q4·2:16

    Kierstan Bell blocks Aneesah Morrow 's 5-foot driving layup

    ·

    CON 55·LV 79

  29. Q4·2:27

    Joyner Holmes makes driving layup (Aaliyah Nye assists)

    ·

    CON 55·LV 79

  30. Q4·2:39

    Kierstan Bell defensive rebound

    CON 55·LV 77

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

LV

Home

23-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-70

32

FG %

43

2-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-28

11-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

15

Assists

18

12

Turnovers

15

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · CON favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    13.6± 5.3low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chelsea GrayLV
    1.0± 1.2low

Steals

  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low
  • Aaliyah EdwardsCON
    1.0± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

CON

league avg

LV

LV

40.7%

FG%

44.7

▶

49.7%

26.0%

3PT %

32.6

▶

34.9%

74.7

PPG

85.4

▶

91.0

17.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

14.8

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop