Aug 22, 25sim 95
1161
17(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+17PHX
NY
24-16
6380
PHX
25-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off New York Liberty, 80–63.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Emma Meesseman
C · #33
17.3Game score
17
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
PHX · top performer
Natasha Mack
F · #4
13.8Game score
8
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY24-16
6380
PHX25-14
NY24-16PHX25-14
NY
24-16
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 30 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 29 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | |
| 30 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 31 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -16 | |
| Team | 63 | 28 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, S. Ionescu | ||||||||
PHX
25-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 29 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +20 | |
| 26 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 33 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 22 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +23 | |
| 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| Team | 80 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
48
17
Ast
22
Playoff series
PHX wins series 2-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:01
NYE. Meesseman
CGame leader · 30 min
17 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
PHXN. Mack
FGame leader · 29 min
8 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat NY 80-63. N. Mack led with 8 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. PHX outscored the other side 25-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 43
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
GS 0
PHXstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX2nd Quarter · 2:07 · 35-37
+11pp→ 50% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
PHX3rd Quarter · 3:48 · 48-51
+9pp→ 58% WP
Kahleah Copper · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kathryn Westbeld assists)
PHX3rd Quarter · 1:01 · 49-55
+14pp→ 77% WP
Natasha Cloud · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 16 | 23 | 10 | 14 | 63 |
| PHX | 17 | 20 | 18 | 25 | 80 |
Period scoring
NY won 1 · PHX won 3
16
17
Q1
Stewart 5
Sabally 4
23
20
Q2
Cloud 8
Copper 9
10
18
Q3
Meesseman 5
Thomas 7
14
25
Q4
Stewart 3
Bonner 7
NY
PHX
Shooting comparison
NY
PHX
44%
24-54
FG
48%
30-63
32%
8-25
3PT
44%
12-27
64%
7-11
FT
57%
8-14
Play-by-play · 352 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 63·PHX 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 63·PHX 80
- Q4·16.8
Isabelle Harrison makes 3-foot layup (Stephanie Talbot assists)
·
NY 63·PHX 80
- Q4·34.8
Lexi Held makes driving layup
NY 61·PHX 80
- Q4·49.9
Kiana Williams defensive rebound
NY 61·PHX 78
- Q4·52.6
Kennedy Burke misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 61·PHX 78
- Q4·52.6
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 61·PHX 78
- Q4·52.6
Kiana Williams shooting foul
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:04
Rebekah Gardner defensive rebound
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:06
Kathryn Westbeld misses driving floating jump shot
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:28
Sami Whitcomb enters the game for Satou Sabally
· ·
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:28
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:28
shot clock turnover
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:36
Kiana Williams enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:36
Lexi Held enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:36
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:39
Isabelle Harrison misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·1:54
Satou Sabally makes 27-foot three point jumper (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
· ·
NY 60·PHX 78
- Q4·2:18
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Isabelle Harrison enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Emma Meesseman
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Marine Johannes enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Satou Sabally enters the game for Kahleah Copper
· ·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Mercury offensive team rebound
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
DeWanna Bonner misses free throw 1 of 1
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Jonquel Jones transition take foul
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:18
Jonquel Jones lost ball turnover (Natasha Mack steals)
·
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:24
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
NY 60·PHX 75
- Q4·2:28
DeWanna Bonner misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 60·PHX 75
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
24-54
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-63
44
FG %
48
8-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-27
7-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-14
17
Assists
22
16
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
PHX
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9