WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+26PHX

PHX

27-17

8660

27-17

WNBAWed, Sep 17FinalSeriesPHX wins series 3-1

PHX · top performer

Satou Sabally

F · #0

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Emma Meesseman

C · #33

8.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 5:11

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	26	15	6-13	0-1	3-3	+17	6	7
N. MackF · #4	17	6	3-5	0-1	—	+2	5	1
S. SaballyF · #0	30	15	5-11	2-4	3-3	+20	7	4
K. CopperG · #2	29	14	5-9	0-1	4-4	+25	2	0
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	20	6	3-7	0-3	—	+14	3	3
Bench
D. BonnerF · #14	21	14	6-9	1-2	1-2	+29	8	1
K. WestbeldF · #24	19	10	4-6	2-4	—	+13	3	2
K. BrownC · #21	3	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
S. WhitcombG · #33	23	3	1-7	1-5	—	+16	2	4
K. LaksaG · #9	5	3	1-2	1-2	—	-2	1	0
K. WilliamsG · #23	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
L. HeldG · #1	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	1	0
Team		86	34-71	7-24	11-12		39	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-24	2	2
L. FiebichF · #13	23	2	0-5	0-2	2-2	-19	2	2
J. JonesC · #35	22	7	3-9	1-3	—	-12	13	1
N. CloudG · #9	28	8	2-5	2-4	2-2	-23	2	2
S. IonescuG · #20	26	9	3-13	1-8	2-6	-19	4	3
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	7	4	2-2	—	0-2	-1	2	0
S. TalbotF · #6	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
N. SaballyF · #8	7	1	0-3	—	1-2	+3	1	1
E. MeessemanC · #33	18	11	4-9	—	3-4	-10	6	3
R. GardnerG · #7	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	0	1	0
K. BurkeG · #22	16	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-20	1	0
M. JohannesG · #23	10	3	0-3	0-2	3-3	-4	2	0
Team		60	19-63	6-26	16-25		36	14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

34-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

19-63

FG %

7-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-26

11-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 14

NY76@

PHX69

Sep 18

PHX86@

NY60today

Sep 20

NY73@

PHX79

How it ended

PHX beat NY 86-60. S. Sabally led with 15 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 26-12 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

Bench(7)

30 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

NYstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

32 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 17

Bench(7)

28 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 5:11 · 8-11

+10pp→ 80% WP

Satou Sabally · out of bounds bad pass turnover

PHX2nd Quarter · 8:01 · 32-27

+6pp→ 45% WP

Satou Sabally · makes 26-foot three pointer

PHX2nd Quarter · 3:42 · 43-30

+7pp→ 81% WP

Sabrina Ionescu · lost ball turnover (Satou Sabally steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	25	26	18	17	86
NY	25	12	10	13	60

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · NY won 0

Copper 6

Jones 7

Sabally 10

Ionescu 19

Mack 4

Stewart 4

Bonner 6

Harrison 4

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

48%

34-71

30%

19-63

29%

7-24

3PT

23%

6-26

92%

11-12

64%

16-25

Play-by-play · 380 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·14.2
Kitija Laksa defensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·16.2
Nyara Sabally misses 7-foot two point shot
·
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·24.9
Kitija Laksa bad pass (Isabelle Harrison steals)
·
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·47.0
Isabelle Harrison makes tip shot
PHX 86·NY 60
Q4·47.0
Isabelle Harrison offensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 58
Q4·47.0
Marine Johannes misses two point shot
PHX 86·NY 58
Q4·57.5
Kitija Laksa makes 26-foot three pointer (Natasha Mack assists)
·
PHX 86·NY 58
Q4·1:10
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 58
Q4·1:14
Stephanie Talbot misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·NY 58
Q4·1:25
Lexi Held steps out of bounds turnover
PHX 83·NY 58
Q4·1:40
Isabelle Harrison makes jump bank shot
PHX 83·NY 58
Q4·1:52
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
·
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·1:55
Kalani Brown misses 4-foot two point shot
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:11
Marine Johannes out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:15
Lexi Held bad pass (Isabelle Harrison steals)
·
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:21
Lexi Held defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:26
Natasha Mack blocks Nyara Sabally 's 5-foot driving layup
· ·
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:40
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·2:45
Lexi Held misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·3:08
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
PHX 83·NY 56
Q4·3:08
Liberty offensive team rebound
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:08
Kiana Williams enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:08
Kalani Brown enters the game for Kathryn Westbeld
·
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:08
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 1 of 2
·
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:08
Natasha Mack shooting foul
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:25
Kathryn Westbeld makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
PHX 83·NY 55
Q4·3:35
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 80·NY 55
Q4·3:39
Marine Johannes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 80·NY 55

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury went into New York Liberty and beat them, 86–60. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

PHX34/71 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim13/20

65%

In the paint6/18

33%

Mid-range8/9

89%

Top-of-arc 37/20

35%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/1

NY19/63 · 30%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim6/9

67%

In the paint5/23

22%

Mid-range1/4

25%

Top-of-arc 35/21

24%

Left corner 30/3

Right corner 32/3

67%

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

52.8%

34.9%

TOV%

ball control

9.5%

16.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.9%

22.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.5%

25.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

PHX34/71 · 48%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim13/20

65%

In the paint6/18

33%

Mid-range8/9

89%

Top-of-arc 37/20

35%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 30/1

NY19/63 · 30%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim6/9

67%

In the paint5/23

22%

Mid-range1/4

25%

Top-of-arc 35/21

24%

Left corner 30/3

Right corner 32/3

67%

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.5%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.6%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 65 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
21.7± 8.9high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.1± 8.1high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4± 8.3medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.9± 2.7high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Natasha MackPHX
7.4± 3.3high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.4± 2.0medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.6± 1.8high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.1high
Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.8high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.3± 0.8high
Noemie BrochantPHX
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Lynx75Valkyries74Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop