Sep 20, 25sim 96
973
11(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+26PHX
PHX
27-17
8660
NY
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into New York Liberty and beat them, 86–60. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
16.2Game score
15
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
NY · top performer
Emma Meesseman
C · #33
8.0Game score
11
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX27-17
8660
NY27-17
PHX27-17NY27-17
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 30 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
| 29 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +25 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 21 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +29 | |
| 19 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 23 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| Team | 86 | 39 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 8 | ||
NY
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -24 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 22 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -12 | |
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -23 | |
| 26 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -19 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 18 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -20 | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 60 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
30
22
Ast
14
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60today
PHX86@NY60todaySep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 5:11
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 30 min
15 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
NYE. Meesseman
CGame leader · 18 min
11 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
PHX beat NY 86-60. S. Sabally led with 15 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 26-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Bench(7)
30 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 26
NYstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
32 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST
GS 17
Bench(7)
28 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY1st Quarter · 5:11 · 8-11
+10pp→ 80% WP
Satou Sabally · out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX2nd Quarter · 8:01 · 32-27
+6pp→ 45% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 26-foot three pointer
PHX2nd Quarter · 3:42 · 43-30
+7pp→ 81% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · lost ball turnover (Satou Sabally steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 25 | 26 | 18 | 17 | 86 |
| NY | 25 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 60 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · NY won 0
25
25
Q1
Copper 6
Jones 7
26
12
Q2
Sabally 10
Ionescu 19
18
10
Q3
Mack 4
Stewart 4
17
13
Q4
Bonner 6
Harrison 4
PHX
NY
Shooting comparison
PHX
NY
48%
34-71
FG
30%
19-63
29%
7-24
3PT
23%
6-26
92%
11-12
FT
64%
16-25
Play-by-play · 380 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·14.2
Kitija Laksa defensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·16.2
Nyara Sabally misses 7-foot two point shot
·
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·24.9
Kitija Laksa bad pass (Isabelle Harrison steals)
·
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·47.0
Isabelle Harrison makes tip shot
PHX 86·NY 60
- Q4·47.0
Isabelle Harrison offensive rebound
PHX 86·NY 58
- Q4·47.0
Marine Johannes misses two point shot
PHX 86·NY 58
- Q4·57.5
Kitija Laksa makes 26-foot three pointer (Natasha Mack assists)
·
PHX 86·NY 58
- Q4·1:10
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 58
- Q4·1:14
Stephanie Talbot misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·NY 58
- Q4·1:25
Lexi Held steps out of bounds turnover
PHX 83·NY 58
- Q4·1:40
Isabelle Harrison makes jump bank shot
PHX 83·NY 58
- Q4·1:52
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
·
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·1:55
Kalani Brown misses 4-foot two point shot
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:11
Marine Johannes out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:15
Lexi Held bad pass (Isabelle Harrison steals)
·
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:21
Lexi Held defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:26
Natasha Mack blocks Nyara Sabally 's 5-foot driving layup
· ·
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:40
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·2:45
Lexi Held misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·3:08
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
·
PHX 83·NY 56
- Q4·3:08
Liberty offensive team rebound
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:08
Kiana Williams enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:08
Kalani Brown enters the game for Kathryn Westbeld
·
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:08
Nyara Sabally misses free throw 1 of 2
·
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:08
Natasha Mack shooting foul
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:25
Kathryn Westbeld makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
PHX 83·NY 55
- Q4·3:35
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 80·NY 55
- Q4·3:39
Marine Johannes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 80·NY 55
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
NY
Home
34-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
19-63
48
FG %
30
7-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-26
11-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-25
22
Assists
14
8
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
NY
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3