Aug 8, 25sim 98
560
11(H)95
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LV
LV
20-14
8683
PHX
19-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 86–83. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
28.1Game score
30
Pts
16
Reb
1
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
23.8Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV20-14
8683
PHX19-13
LV20-14PHX19-13
LV
20-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 34 | 30 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +7 | |
| 36 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +8 | |
| 33 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +9 | |
| 29 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 86 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Gustafson | ||||||||
PHX
19-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -7 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 22 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5 | |
| 30 | 26 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 30 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 32 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 83 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
46
21
Ast
23
Playoff series
LV wins series 4-0
Oct 4PHX86@LV89
PHX86@LV89Oct 5PHX78@LV91
PHX78@LV91Oct 9LV90@PHX88
LV90@PHX88Oct 11LV97@PHX86
LV97@PHX86Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 1:28
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 16 REB · 1 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 30 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat PHX 86-83. A. Wilson paced them with 30 PTS, 16 REB, 1 AST. NaLyssa Smith's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 36 REB · 16 AST
GS 69
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
GS 6
PHXstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
15 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 4:52 · 71-73
+14pp→ 52% WP
Alyssa Thomas · shooting foul
LV4th Quarter · 4:18 · 76-75
+15pp→ 54% WP
Jackie Young · makes 25-foot three pointer
PHX4th Quarter · 1:28 · 82-78
+24pp→ 39% WP
NaLyssa Smith · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 15 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 86 |
| PHX | 17 | 25 | 17 | 24 | 83 |
Period scoring
LV won 3 · PHX won 1
15
17
Q1
Wilson 8
Sabally 5
26
25
Q2
Wilson 12
Sabally 8
19
17
Q3
Young 7
Makani 6
26
24
Q4
Gray 10
Sabally 11
LV
PHX
Shooting comparison
LV
PHX
45%
30-66
FG
46%
31-68
22%
4-18
3PT
37%
10-27
85%
22-26
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 378 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·0.0
Chelsea Gray blocks Satou Sabally 's 33-foot three point jumper
·
LV 86·PHX 83
−0.9pp
- Q4·0.8
Mercury Full timeout
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·0.8
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 86·PHX 83
- Q4·0.8
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 85·PHX 83
- Q4·0.8
DeWanna Bonner personal foul
LV 84·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·0.8
Satou Sabally bad pass (Chelsea Gray steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 84·PHX 83
−14pp
- Q4·3.6
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
·
LV 84·PHX 83
- Q4·3.6
Mercury Full timeout
LV 84·PHX 83
- Q4·3.6
Mercury defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 83
−13pp
- Q4·7.2
A'ja Wilson misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
LV 84·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·9.5
Aces Full timeout
LV 84·PHX 83
- Q4·30.8
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LV 84·PHX 83
- Q4·30.8
Aces Full timeout
LV 84·PHX 83
- Q4·30.8
Alyssa Thomas makes layup (Satou Sabally assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 84·PHX 83
+8pp
- Q4·42.1
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 81
+3pp
- Q4·42.1
Chelsea Gray misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
LV 84·PHX 81
+4pp
- Q4·1:03
Satou Sabally makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
LV 84·PHX 81
+6pp
- Q4·1:03
Satou Sabally offensive rebound
LV 84·PHX 79
+3pp
- Q4·1:07
DeWanna Bonner misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 84·PHX 79
−4pp
- Q4·1:14
Mercury timeout
LV 84·PHX 79
- Q4·1:14
Chelsea Gray makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 84·PHX 79
+2pp
- Q4·1:27
Satou Sabally loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LV 82·PHX 79
−14pp
- Q4·1:27
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 82·PHX 79
- Q4·1:28
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LV 82·PHX 79
−17pp
- Q4·1:28
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 82·PHX 79
+2pp
- Q4·1:28
NaLyssa Smith shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 82·PHX 78
+24pp
- Q4·1:38
Chelsea Gray makes 12-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 82·PHX 78
−8pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
30-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-68
45
FG %
46
4-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-27
22-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
21
Assists
23
11
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
PHX
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
34.9%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9