Sep 14, 25sim 97
976
11(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6PHX
NY
27-17
7379
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off New York Liberty, 79–73.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Breanna Stewart
F · #30
26.3Game score
30
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
20.2Game score
23
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY27-17
7379
PHX27-17
NY27-17PHX27-17
NY
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 28 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 33 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -9 | |
| 37 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -17 | |
| Team | 73 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, S. Talbot, N. Sabally, M. Johannes | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 37 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +3 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 34 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 34 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 21 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 22 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 79 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
37
18
Ast
21
Playoff series
PHX wins series 2-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79today
NY73@PHX79todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 25pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:10
NYB. Stewart
FGame leader · 35 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 34 min
23 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
PHX beat NY 79-73. S. Sabally led with 23 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. Natasha Cloud's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 45
Bench(3)
8 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
GS 5
PHXstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 38 REB · 18 AST
GS 46
Bench(3)
20 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY3rd Quarter · 1:10 · 58-60
+25pp→ 49% WP
Natasha Cloud · makes free throw 1 of 2
NY4th Quarter · 1:10 · 71-76
+15pp→ 31% WP
Satou Sabally · personal foul
PHX4th Quarter · 48.6 · 73-76
+16pp→ 92% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 15 | 26 | 18 | 14 | 73 |
| PHX | 22 | 23 | 15 | 19 | 79 |
Period scoring
NY won 2 · PHX won 2
15
22
Q1
Stewart 6
Thomas 6
26
23
Q2
Ionescu 12
Sabally 9
18
15
Q3
Ionescu 8
Makani 25
14
19
Q4
Stewart 14
Sabally 5
NY
PHX
Shooting comparison
NY
PHX
34%
23-68
FG
37%
26-71
22%
7-32
3PT
38%
9-24
77%
20-26
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 421 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 73·PHX 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 73·PHX 79
- Q4·2.9
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
NY 73·PHX 79
- Q4·6.2
Sabrina Ionescu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 73·PHX 79
+1pp
- Q4·14.5
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 73·PHX 79
- Q4·17.6
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 73·PHX 79
−2pp
- Q4·17.6
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 73·PHX 79
- Q4·17.6
Breanna Stewart personal take foul
NY 73·PHX 78
+2pp
- Q4·22.5
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
·
NY 73·PHX 78
+1pp
- Q4·25.8
Jonquel Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 73·PHX 78
+3pp
- Q4·27.8
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 73·PHX 78
−2pp
- Q4·30.3
Sabrina Ionescu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 73·PHX 78
+3pp
- Q4·32.8
Natasha Mack enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
NY 73·PHX 78
- Q4·32.8
Liberty Full timeout
NY 73·PHX 78
- Q4·32.8
Kahleah Copper makes driving layup (Sami Whitcomb assists)
·
NY 73·PHX 78
- Q4·48.6
DeWanna Bonner enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
NY 73·PHX 76
- Q4·48.6
Sabrina Ionescu personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 73·PHX 76
+16pp
- Q4·53.1
Natasha Cloud bad pass (Alyssa Thomas steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 73·PHX 76
+15pp
- Q4·56.3
Natasha Mack enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
NY 73·PHX 76
- Q4·56.3
Liberty Full timeout
NY 73·PHX 76
- Q4·56.3
Alyssa Thomas turnover
NY 73·PHX 76
- Q4·56.3
Alyssa Thomas offensive chargeBIG MOMENT
NY 73·PHX 76
−13pp
- Q4·1:10
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 73·PHX 76
+10pp
- Q4·1:10
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 72·PHX 76
−3pp
- Q4·1:10
Satou Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
NY 71·PHX 76
−15pp
- Q4·1:13
Liberty timeout
NY 71·PHX 76
- Q4·1:13
DeWanna Bonner makes 13-foot jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 71·PHX 76
+9pp
- Q4·1:15
Mercury Full timeout
NY 71·PHX 74
- Q4·1:35
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
NY 71·PHX 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:38
Jonquel Jones misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 71·PHX 74
+7pp
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
23-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-71
34
FG %
37
7-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-24
20-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
18
Assists
21
10
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
PHX
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9