Jul 23, 25sim 92
584
9(H)98
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6PHX
IND
21-20
7985
PHX
26-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Indiana Fever, 85–79.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
22.6Game score
29
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
16.1Game score
23
Pts
9
Reb
9
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND21-20
7985
PHX26-14
IND21-20PHX26-14
IND
21-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| 36 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | |
| 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 34 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| 35 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 20 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 79 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, M. Timpson, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
PHX
26-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +8 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +10 | |
| 23 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 25 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 24 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| Team | 85 | 36 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
45
25
Ast
24
Season series
PHX wins series 2-1
Jul 30PHX101@IND107
PHX101@IND107Aug 8IND60@PHX95
IND60@PHX95Sep 3IND79@PHX85today
IND79@PHX85todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 7:05
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 34 min
29 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 34 min
23 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
PHX beat IND 85-79. A. Thomas led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST
GS 13
PHXstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 7:05 · 12-9
+9pp→ 54% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aliyah Boston assists)
PHX2nd Quarter · 2:18 · 36-44
+8pp→ 78% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sami Whitcomb assists)
PHX2nd Quarter · 1:40 · 39-47
+8pp→ 79% WP
Sami Whitcomb · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 23 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 79 |
| PHX | 25 | 29 | 13 | 18 | 85 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · PHX won 2
23
25
Q1
Mitchell 15
Copper 9
16
29
Q2
Boston 8
Bonner 8
18
13
Q3
Mitchell 7
Mack 4
22
18
Q4
Mitchell 7
Bonner 6
IND
PHX
Shooting comparison
IND
PHX
43%
32-75
FG
45%
30-66
36%
9-25
3PT
29%
6-21
75%
6-8
FT
83%
19-23
Play-by-play · 371 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 79·PHX 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 79·PHX 85
+1pp
- Q4·19.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
IND 79·PHX 85
+2pp
- Q4·33.7
Kahleah Copper personal foul
IND 77·PHX 85
−3pp
- Q4·38.8
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Brianna Turner
·
IND 77·PHX 85
−1pp
- Q4·38.8
Damiris Dantas defensive rebound
IND 77·PHX 85
- Q4·38.8
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 77·PHX 85
−0.5pp
- Q4·38.8
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 77·PHX 85
- Q4·38.8
Lexie Hull personal take foul
IND 77·PHX 84
- Q4·41.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
IND 77·PHX 84
- Q4·46.1
Fever timeout
IND 75·PHX 84
- Q4·46.1
shot clock turnover
IND 75·PHX 84
- Q4·46.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
IND 75·PHX 84
- Q4·47.5
DeWanna Bonner misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 75·PHX 84
- Q4·1:10
Lexie Hull makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 75·PHX 84
- Q4·1:22
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 72·PHX 84
- Q4·1:22
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 72·PHX 83
- Q4·1:22
Brianna Turner shooting foul
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·1:35
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·1:35
Kahleah Copper misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·1:38
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·1:42
Alyssa Thomas misses 6-foot two point shot
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·2:11
Kelsey Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)
·
IND 72·PHX 82
- Q4·2:21
Fever Full timeout
IND 69·PHX 82
- Q4·2:23
DeWanna Bonner makes 3-foot layup (Alyssa Thomas assists)
·
IND 69·PHX 82
- Q4·2:37
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
IND 69·PHX 80
- Q4·2:41
Kelsey Mitchell misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 69·PHX 80
- Q4·2:44
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
IND 69·PHX 80
- Q4·2:49
Odyssey Sims misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 69·PHX 80
+0.5pp
- Q4·3:01
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 69·PHX 80
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
32-75
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-66
43
FG %
45
9-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-21
6-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-23
25
Assists
24
12
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
PHX
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
32.1%
3PT %
33.0
32.3%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9