Jun 17, 25sim 96
2081
9(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13NY
PHX
15-9
7689
NY
17-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty held off Phoenix Mercury, 89–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
21.2Game score
20
Pts
13
Reb
8
Ast
NY · top performer
Sabrina Ionescu
G · #20
22.1Game score
29
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX15-9
7689
NY17-6
PHX15-9NY17-6
PHX
15-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +10 | |
| 22 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 24 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 23 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 26 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -20 | |
| 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -25 | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -18 | |
| Team | 76 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Westbeld, K. Brown, K. Williams | ||||||||
NY
17-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +9 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 31 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
| 29 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +20 | |
| 34 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +8 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +16 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| Team | 89 | 37 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 16 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, N. Sabally | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
42
22
Ast
22
Playoff series
PHX wins series 2-1
Sep 14NY76@PHX69
NY76@PHX69Sep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ NY
Biggest swing: 17pp · 1st Quarter · 1:56
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 35 min
20 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST
NYS. Ionescu
GGame leader · 34 min
29 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
NY beat PHX 89-76. S. Ionescu paced them with 29 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. NY outscored the other side 21-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NY vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 39
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
GS 7
NYstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 33 REB · 19 AST
GS 64
Bench(5)
11 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 1:56 · 24-14
+17pp→ 57% WP
Kennedy Burke · misses driving layup
NY2nd Quarter · 0.2 · 46-45
+16pp→ 66% WP
Sabrina Ionescu · makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX3rd Quarter · 3:45 · 57-56
+10pp→ 41% WP
Lexi Held · makes 26-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 27 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 76 |
| NY | 23 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 89 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · NY won 3
27
23
Q1
Thomas 9
Jones 9
19
23
Q2
Bonner 7
Ionescu 16
13
21
Q3
Makani 4
Ionescu 12
17
22
Q4
Mack 5
Jones 5
PHX
NY
Shooting comparison
PHX
NY
40%
31-77
FG
42%
29-69
23%
7-30
3PT
32%
10-31
54%
7-13
FT
95%
21-22
Play-by-play · 424 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·19.0
shot clock turnover
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·43.0
Liberty defensive team rebound
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·45.2
Satou Sabally misses 29-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·52.1
Jaylyn Sherrod enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·52.1
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·53.1
Marine Johannes blocks Alyssa Thomas 's 3-foot driving layup
·
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·59.2
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 76·NY 89
- Q4·59.2
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 76·NY 88
- Q4·59.2
(00:59.9) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Mercury] charged with a timeout
PHX 76·NY 87
- Q4·59.2
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 76·NY 87
- Q4·59.2
Monique Akoa Makani personal foul
PHX 76·NY 87
- Q4·1:01
Satou Sabally personal foul
·
PHX 76·NY 87
- Q4·1:07
Satou Sabally makes 21-foot step back jumpshot (Sami Whitcomb assists)
· ·
PHX 76·NY 87
- Q4·1:22
Marine Johannes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Breanna Stewart assists)
·
PHX 74·NY 87
- Q4·1:40
Sami Whitcomb makes free throw 1 of 1
PHX 74·NY 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:40
Leonie Fiebich shooting foul
PHX 73·NY 84
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:40
Sami Whitcomb makes driving layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
PHX 73·NY 84
- Q4·1:47
Breanna Stewart lost ball turnover
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:47
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:47
(01:47) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Mercury] retain their timeout
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:50
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Natasha Cloud enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
PHX 70·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Kahleah Copper enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
PHX 70·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Leonie Fiebich loose ball foul
PHX 70·NY 84
- Q4·1:51
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 70·NY 84
- Q4·1:54
Satou Sabally misses 23-foot three point shot
·
PHX 70·NY 84
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
NY
Home
31-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-69
40
FG %
42
7-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-31
7-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-22
22
Assists
22
14
Turnovers
16
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 14 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
NY
43.4%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
32.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.8%
85.6
PPG
86.0
▶88.0
18.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3